Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners — (Tue, Sep 2, 2025)
- Baseball (MLB)
- Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa
- All times ET
Summary: Game 2 in Tampa features Drew Rasmussen vs Bryan Woo. Open air, warm night; modest rain risk. Our model and market lean narrowly to the Rays in a low-to-mid total.
About this preview
Written by Model Room – Sports Preview — MLB sims & editorial. Reviewed by Editorial QA — sourcing/compliance.
Published: • Updated: OverviewWeather / ConditionsLineupsMedicalTacticalKey FactsPlayer to WatchH2H & FormStatsAssessmentSensitivityFAQ
Match Overview
| League | Major League Baseball (MLB) |
|---|---|
| Season | 2025 |
| Date | Tue, Sep 2, 2025 • 7:35 PM ET |
| Venue | George M. Steinbrenner Field (Tampa, USA) |
| Officials | Umpire crew: TBD pregame |
Source: ESPN Game Hub (time/venue/probables); MLB.com — Rays at Steinbrenner Field
Weather / Conditions
Warm, partly cloudy evening; light westerly breeze. RotoWire projects modest rain risk while Swish flags low delay odds.
- Temp ~29°C (85°F)
- Precip ~36% (low delay risk)
- Wind ~2.7 m/s W (in)
- Roof: Outdoor
Source: RotoWire MLB Weather (Tampa 7:35 ET); Swish Analytics MLB Weather (SEA@TB listing)
Lineups & Environment
Tampa Bay Rays — Batting Order
- 1: TBD • 2: TBD • 3: TBD • 4: TBD
- 5: TBD • 6: TBD • 7: TBD • 8: TBD • 9: TBD
- SP: Drew Rasmussen (RHP)
Source: ESPN Probables
Seattle Mariners — Batting Order
- 1: TBD • 2: TBD • 3: TBD • 4: TBD
- 5: TBD • 6: TBD • 7: TBD • 8: TBD • 9: TBD
- SP: Bryan Woo (RHP)
Source: ESPN Probables
Note: Replace “Predicted” with “Official” ~60 minutes before first pitch once lineups post.
Medical & Condition
Tampa Bay Rays
- Out: Jonathan Hernández (60-day IL), Hunter Bigge (60-day IL)
- Doubtful/Questionable: Jonny DeLuca (10-day IL), Taylor Walls (10-day IL), Xavier Isaac (7-day IL)
- Returning (reduced curve): Monitor day-of activations.
Source: ESPN Injury Report (game hub)
Seattle Mariners
- Out: Gregory Santos (60-day IL), Trent Thornton (60-day IL)
- Doubtful/Questionable/Suspension: Logan Evans (15-day IL), Ryan Bliss (60-day IL), Victor Robles (susp.)
- Returning (reduced curve): As activated, expect light usage caps initially.
Source: ESPN Injury Report (game hub)
Player & Tactical Analysis
Matchup lens: Rasmussen’s velocity/command and Woo’s elite WHIP profile set a run-suppressed baseline. Steinbrenner Field is open-air with short corners (LF ~318 ft, RF ~314 ft), nudging HR risk on pulled air contact; keeping the ball down and limiting free passes are pivotal. Tampa’s contact quality vs four-seam/slider mixes (Caminero, Díaz) meets Seattle’s power spine (Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh).
Source: ESPN pregame (probables/leaders); Stadium dimensions
Key Facts
- Start time: Tue, Sep 2 • 7:35 PM ET — George M. Steinbrenner Field (Tampa).
- Probable pitchers: TB Drew Rasmussen vs SEA Bryan Woo.
- Season series: Seattle leads 3–1 entering Game 2.
- How to watch: ROOT Sports NW / Bally Sports Sun (regional).
Source: ESPN Game Hub; AP/How to Watch (Data Skrive)
Player to Watch
Tampa Bay Rays — Drew Rasmussen (RHP)
Run prevention profile (2.64 ERA entering this start) with a high-leverage slider. Early count wins + GB% are the Rays’ clearest path to a 2-turn quality start.
Source: ESPN player line
Seattle Mariners — Bryan Woo (RHP)
Air-contact management and elite WHIP (0.95) keep Seattle live even in a hitter-leaning venue; HR avoidance to RF is the swing factor against Tampa’s right-hand power.
Source: ESPN player line
Head-to-Head & Form Context
Head-to-Head
| 2025 season series | SEA leads 3–1 (entering this game) |
|---|---|
| All-time (reg. season) | SEA 118–92 TB |
Source: ESPN Preview (season series); StatMuse all-time H2H
Form & Momentum
| Rays last 5 | W vs SEA, W @ WSH, W @ WSH, W @ WSH, L @ CLE (F/10) |
|---|---|
| Mariners last 5 | L @ TB, W @ CLE, L @ CLE, L @ CLE, W vs SD |
Source: ESPN Last-5 (game hub)
Statistics & Simulations
| Probable pitchers | TB Drew Rasmussen (ERA 2.64, FIP —) vs SEA Bryan Woo (ERA 2.95, FIP —) |
|---|---|
| Bullpen snapshot | Neutral; monitor day-of leverage availability (back-to-backs could matter late). |
| Park factor | Open air; short corners (LF 318’, RF 314’) slightly elevate pulled-fly HR risk. |
| Win probability | Tampa Bay Rays 55% — Seattle Mariners 45% |
|---|---|
| Total runs (proj) | 7.4–7.8 (market O/U 7.5) |
| Likely scorelines | 4–3 TB, 5–3 TB, 4–3 SEA |
Source: ESPN odds/probables; Stadium dimensions
Final Assessment
Model-calibrated probabilities (sum ≈ 100%):
- Home win: 55%
- Draw/Tie (if applicable): 0%
- Away win: 45%
Key drivers: Rasmussen/Woo run-prevention duel; short-corner HR risk; warm, light-wind night; Rays’ recent form surge; Seattle’s road splits.
Sensitivity (Top-5 Drivers)
| Driver | Δ Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| HR/FB to RF (pulled air) | Δ ±4% | Short RF (314’) boosts pulled flies; suppression favors TB. |
| First-pitch strike % (both SP) | Δ ±3–4% | Getting ahead limits BB & barrels; either side gains. |
| High-leverage bullpen availability | Δ ±3% | Back-to-backs swing late-inning edge. |
| BABIP vs walls/caroms | Δ ±2% | Extra-base singles→doubles dynamic can flip close games. |
| Weather (showers pop-up) | Δ ±2% | Light rain risk could dampen carry and pace marginally. |
Source: venue dimensions; live weather boards (see above).
FAQ
What time is the game?
Scheduled for Tue, Sep 2, 2025 • 7:35 PM ET.
Will official lineups be added?
Yes — replace “Predicted” with “Official” about 60 minutes before first pitch once teams post.
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