Win Rate
SC Freiburg 49.2%
Draw
26.1%
FC Augsburg
24.7%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 52% / U2.5 48%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: German Bundesliga 2025/26, Matchday 1
- Date & Time: Sat, 23 Aug 2025 — 9:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC / 15:30 local)
- Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
- Broadcast: US — ESPN+; Germany — Sky (single match) & DAZN (Konferenz)
- Referee/VAR: TBD
- Weather (Kick-off): Mostly sunny/partly cloudy ~68°F/20°C, light NW wind, low rain probability
Sources: DFB DataCenter – Fixture · ESPN Match/Schedule · DFL Calendar · DFB Referee Assignments · Hourly Weather — Freiburg
2) Lineups & Setup
SC Freiburg (4-2-3-1)
Atubolu; Kübler, Ginter, Lienhart, Günter; Osterhage, Eggestein; Dinkçi, Manzambi, Grifo; Höler
Notes: Continuity under Schuster; wide overloads through Grifo/Dinkçi, set-piece quality (Grifo/Ginter).
FC Augsburg (3-4-2-1)
Dahmen; Matsima, Gouweleeuw, K. Schlotterbeck; Wolf, Jakic, Massengo, Giannoulis; Saad, Kömür; Tietz
Notes: Wagner’s debut; wing-back width, Kömür between lines, Tietz as focal target.
Sources: Bulinews predicted XIs & team news · SofaScore match hub
3) Medical & Condition
- SC Freiburg: Igor Matanović (out, early-season thigh/undisclosed); Phillip Treu, Niclas Höfler, Max Rosenfelder (out/return mid-Sep window).
- FC Augsburg: Alexis Claude-Maurice (ankle, doubtful/out); Elvis Rexhbecaj (sprained knee, out until ~Oct).
Sources: Bulinews team news · GFN Germany – Claude-Maurice · Wettbasis injury tracker · RotoWire – Matanović
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- SC Freiburg: Key outgoings — Ritsu Dōan to Eintracht Frankfurt (reported ~€21m), Kiliann Sildillia to PSV (official). Squad continuity otherwise strong; pathway minutes for youth.
- FC Augsburg: New head coach Sandro Wagner replaces Jess Thorup; tactical reset toward dynamic press/wing-back usage. Monitoring attacking depth while Claude-Maurice recovers.
Sources: AP – Dōan to Frankfurt · SC Freiburg official – Sildillia to PSV · Bundesliga.com – Wagner appointed
5) Public Opinion & Context
- H2H snapshot: Freiburg lead the series (approx. 17-8-9 over 34 meetings) with recent results: FCA 0-0 SCF (Mar 2025), SCF 3-1 FCA (Oct 2024), FCA 2-1 SCF (Feb 2024).
- Market range (1X2): Freiburg ~1.80–1.95 (−115 to −140), Draw ~3.70–3.95, Augsburg ~3.90–4.80 pre-KO.
Sources: FCtables H2H · Soccerway recent meetings · OddsShark · Oddspedia · ESPN odds snippet
6) Statistics & Simulation Results
Method: Elo + home/away splits + last-10 EWMA + schedule strength; Poisson with Dixon–Coles rho; 250k sims with antithetic pairing; isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: SC Freiburg 1.56 · FC Augsburg 1.06
- Win/Draw/Loss: 49.2% / 26.1% / 24.7% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–1 (Alternatives: 1–0, 2–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 52% · Under 48%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ Claude-Maurice available: Augsburg xG +0.08 → FCA win +3 pp, Draw −1 pp.
- Freiburg set-pieces (Grifo delivery, Ginter targets): +1 standard deviation on set-piece volume → SCF win +4 pp; Mode shifts toward 2–1.
- Game-state & referee profile (foul rate): whistle-light official → O2.5 +5 pp via transitions; whistle-heavy → U2.5 +4 pp via dead-ball control.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 88 · Confidence 70
Sources: FBref — Freiburg 24/25 (xG/xGA) · FBref — Augsburg 24/25 (xG/xGA)
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Freiburg retain more structure and set-piece threat despite summer outgoings. Augsburg enter a new tactical cycle under Wagner and may need time to stabilize chance creation without Claude-Maurice.
- Result: Freiburg win-draw lean (home edge, narrow)
- Score: Mode 1–1, with Freiburg 2–1 within ±1 goal range
- O/U: Slight lean to Over 2.5 (52%) given transition potential
Sources: Market/odds baseline · Team context
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.