Win Rate
Roma 44%
Draw
30%
Bologna
26%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 43% / U2.5 57%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: Italian Serie A 2025–26, Matchday 1
- Date & Time: Sat, Aug 23, 2025 — 2:45 PM ET (20:45 CEST)
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
- Broadcast (US/IT): Paramount+ (US); Sky Sport Uno & DAZN (Italy)
- Referee/VAR: Luca Zufferli — Assistants Mondin & Miniutti; 4th Official Marchetti; VAR Mazzoleni; AVAR Fabbri
- Weather (Kick-off): Mostly clear ~81–83°F (27–28°C), WSW 8–10 mph, ~10% precip
Sources: Lega Serie A Fixture · AS Roma (kickoff) · Sky Sport (TV Italy) · Paramount+ (US listing) · Referee assignments · Hourly weather (Rome)
2) Lineups & Setup Projected
Roma (3-4-2-1)
Svilar; Ghilardi, Mancini, N’Dicka; Rensch, Koné, Cristante, Angeliño; El Aynaoui, Soulé; Evan Ferguson.
Notes: Dybala available but managed minutes per reports; Çelik suspended; Pellegrini and Bove ruled out; Leon Bailey out.
Bologna (4-2-3-1)
Skorupski; De Silvestri, Vitík, Lucumí, Lykogiannis; Freuler, Pobega; Orsolini, Odgaard, Cambiaghi; Ciro Immobile.
Notes: Emil Holm out; Juan Miranda suspended; Bernardeschi and Lewis Ferguson listed as questionable.
Sources: RotoWire expected XIs & injuries · Sports Mole preview (XI)
3) Medical & Condition
- Roma: Çelik (susp), Bailey (out), Bove (out), Pellegrini (out); Dybala returning — likely managed minutes.
- Bologna: Holm (out), Miranda (susp); Bernardeschi (Q), L. Ferguson (Q).
Sources: RotoWire injuries/suspensions · Sports Mole team news
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Roma: New coach Gian Piero Gasperini; summer arrivals highlighted in coverage include Evan Ferguson, Daniele Ghilardi, Neil El Aynaoui, and Ramiro (Wesley) — tactical shift to high-tempo 3-4-2-1.
- Bologna: Coppa Italia holders; additions include Ciro Immobile and Martin Vitík; Pobega on loan strengthens double pivot; Bernardeschi linked/added in some reports.
Sources: ChiesaDiTotti (context/transfers) · Sports Mole (signings context)
5) Public Opinion & Context
- H2H trend: Bologna unbeaten in the last five vs Roma; at the Olimpico they’ve won the last two league meetings.
- Market view: Moneyline consensus ~Roma +105 to +110, Draw +210 to +225, Bologna +240 to +270 → implies Roma ~44–46% favorites.
Sources: ESPN match page & last 5 · OddsPortal (fixture/odds) · Action Network (totals/line)
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Method: Poisson + Dixon–Coles (correlation adjustment), team strength via recent xG (Opta/FBref), EWMA form, venue/home edge, lineup availability, weather & referee card-rate tweaks; 100k Monte Carlo sims with isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Roma 1.28 · Bologna 1.06
- Win/Draw/Loss: 44% / 30% / 26% (sums 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–1 (Alternatives: 1–0, 2–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 43% · Under 57%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Dybala ≥60′ vs cameo → ΔRoma win +3–5 pp; creative shot-assist lift.
- Lewis Ferguson availability (BOL) → adds ~+0.10 away xG; ΔBologna win +2–3 pp.
- Ref Zufferli card tempo: if 5+ cards (career ~3–4 per match), set-piece xG up; ΔOver 2.5 +3–4 pp.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 88/100 · Confidence 66/100
Sources: FBref team context (xG/season) · FBref Bologna 24/25 · Dixon–Coles explainer · Weather input · Zufferli card profile
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Roma’s new-look 3-4-2-1 under Gasperini should control territory and set-pieces at home, but Bologna’s wide threats (Orsolini/Cambiaghi) and Immobile’s movement keep this balanced. With Dybala likely managed and Bologna compact centrally (Freuler + Pobega), a tight opener is favored.
- Result: Lean Roma or Draw (conservative win-draw)
- Score: 1–1 (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Under 2.5 slightly preferred (57%)
Sources: Market & H2H baseline · Team-news consensus
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.