Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers — MLB Preview (Tue, Sep 2, 2025)
- Baseball
- Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
- All times ET
Summary: Series opener at pitcher-friendly PNC Park: veteran Clayton Kershaw (9–2, 3.06) faces Carmen Mlodzinski (3–7, 3.86). Model leans Dodgers in a lower-scoring environment with HR-suppression and light winds.
About this preview
Written by Alex Park — Sports data analyst. Reviewed by Mia Chen — Senior editor, MLB previews.
Published: • Updated: OverviewWeather / ConditionsLineupsMedicalTacticalKey FactsPlayer to WatchH2H & FormStatsAssessmentSensitivityFAQ
Match Overview
| League | Major League Baseball (MLB) |
|---|---|
| Season | 2025 |
| Date | Tue, Sep 2, 2025 • 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | PNC Park (Pittsburgh, USA) |
| Officials | Umpire crew: TBD |
Source: MLB Game Preview; ESPN game hub
Source: Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 3.0) — “PNC Park panoramic”.
Weather / Conditions
Mostly clear and mild at first pitch; light ESE breeze. PNC Park plays pitcher-friendly for HRs; run scoring slightly suppressed.
- Temp 23°C
- Precip 0%
- Wind 1.6 m/s (ESE)
- Roof: Outdoor
Source: Swish Analytics weather
Lineups & Environment
Pittsburgh Pirates — Batting Order (projected)
- 1: Jared Triolo (3B) • 2: Spencer Horwitz (1B) • 3: Bryan Reynolds (CF) • 4: Tommy Pham (LF)
- 5: Nick Gonzales (2B) • 6: Andrew McCutchen (DH) • 7: Oneil Cruz (SS) • 8: Henry Davis (C) • 9: Cam Devanney (IF)
- SP: Carmen Mlodzinski (R) • Bullpen: usage light-to-moderate in last week
Source: Projected order (Sportskeeda); MLB starting lineups board
Los Angeles Dodgers — Batting Order (projected)
- 1: Shohei Ohtani (DH) • 2: Mookie Betts (SS) • 3: Freddie Freeman (1B) • 4: Will Smith (C)
- 5: Teoscar Hernández (RF) • 6: Michael Conforto (LF) • 7: Andy Pages (CF) • 8: Hyeseong Kim (2B) • 9: Alex Freeland (3B)
- SP: Clayton Kershaw (L) • Bullpen: rested relative to PIT (see bullpen notes)
Source: MLB Dodgers lineup page (recent template); RotoWire daily lineups (proj.)
Note: Replace “Projected” with “Official” ~60 minutes before first pitch once posted on MLB lineups.
Medical & Condition
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Out: Jared Jones (UCL), Endy Rodríguez (elbow), Justin Lawrence (elbow), Jack Brannigan (shoulder)
- Doubtful/Questionable: Jack Suwinski (groin), Ronny Simon (shoulder)
- Returning (reduced curve): Oneil Cruz (recent concussion IL — activated Aug 26)
Source: MLB.com Pirates injuries/transactions; CBS Sports injuries
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Out: Max Muncy (oblique), Gavin Stone (shoulder), Brusdar Graterol (shoulder), Evan Phillips (elbow)
- Doubtful/Questionable: Alex Vesia (oblique)
- Returning (reduced curve): Michael Kopech (knee), Hyeseong Kim (shoulder) — both activated Sep 1
Source: MLB.com Dodgers injuries/transactions; ESPN injuries
Player & Tactical Analysis
Dodgers lean on elite contact/discipline at the top (Betts/Freeman/Smith) to pressure Mlodzinski’s 2nd-time-through-order vulnerability (FIP ~3.8–4.0 as a starter this year). Kershaw’s August form (5–0, 1.88 ERA) stabilizes LA’s run prevention; Pirates counter with Reynolds/Cruz’s damage potential and Pham’s RHP profile. PNC Park’s HR suppression (HR factor ~85) reduces long-ball volatility; run creation shifts toward doubles/gaps and stringing hits.
Source: FanGraphs splits (Mlodzinski); ESPN note on Kershaw’s August; Baseball Savant park factors (PNC)
Key Facts
- Probable SPs: Kershaw (9–2, 3.06) vs Mlodzinski (3–7, 3.86). (MLB preview)
- ESPN Matchup Predictor: Dodgers ~62% to win. (Context only; model below is independent)
- PNC Park HR factor ~85 (below average for HRs). Lower volatility favors the deeper lineup.
- Recent H2H last five: Dodgers 4–1 Pirates (since Aug 2024), including two LA wins on Apr 26–27, 2025.
Source: MLB; ESPN predictor; HR park factor list; Apr 27, 2025, Apr 26, 2025, Aug 10, 2024, Aug 11, 2024
Player to Watch
Pittsburgh Pirates — Oneil Cruz (SS)
Left-handed power with elite bat speed; even with PNC’s deep LF, his opposite-field loft can play. If he controls chase, he’s Pittsburgh’s highest-leverage bat vs. a soft-tossing, command-first Kershaw at this stage.
Source: Pirates official
Los Angeles Dodgers — Shohei Ohtani (DH)
Run creation hub; lengthens top-3 with Betts/Freeman. Extra-base hit profile travels even in pitcher parks; projects well vs. RHP with mid-tier K/BB like Mlodzinski.
Source: Dodgers official
Head-to-Head & Form Context
Head-to-Head
| Last 5 meetings | Dodgers 4–1 Pirates (Apr 25–27, 2025; Aug 10–11, 2024) |
|---|---|
| All-time record | Dodgers lead historically (StatMuse aggregate) |
Source: ESPN Apr 27, 2025; Apr 26, 2025; Aug 10, 2024; Aug 11, 2024; StatMuse all-time
Form & Momentum
| Pirates last 5 | Mixed; injuries across lineup, recent call-ups (Simon/Suwinski to IL; Devanney recalled). |
|---|---|
| Dodgers last 5 | Rotation trending up; Kershaw hot in August; reinforcements (Kopech, H. Kim) activated. |
Source: Pirates moves; TrueBlueLA rotation/injury notes
Statistics & Simulations
| Probable pitchers | Carmen Mlodzinski (ERA 3.86, FIP ~3.9) vs Clayton Kershaw (ERA 3.06, FIP ~3.6) |
|---|---|
| Bullpen snapshot | Usage & form monitored; LAD slightly better rested, PIT depth thinned by injuries. |
| Park factor | PNC Park HR factor ≈ 85 (suppresses HR); overall run environment slightly below avg. |
| Win probability | Pirates 38% — Dodgers 62% |
|---|---|
| Total runs (proj) | 8.1 (lean Under 8.5 if lines equal) |
| Likely scorelines | LAD 5–3, LAD 4–3, LAD 5–2, PIT 4–3 |
Source: MLB probable pitchers; FanGraphs FIP/splits; Kershaw FIP snapshot; Savant park factors (PNC)
Final Assessment
Model-calibrated probabilities (sum ≈ 100%):
- Home win: 38%
- Draw/Tie (if applicable): —
- Away win: 62%
Key drivers: Kershaw’s August form and command; Mlodzinski’s TTO exposure; PNC Park HR suppression; mild weather (wind in/neutral); Dodgers’ top-of-order OBP edge.
Sensitivity (Top-5 Drivers)
| Driver | Δ Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Kershaw pitch count/velo holds | Δ +7–9% LAD | Form spike in Aug; if sustained through 6 IP, swing toward Dodgers. |
| Mlodzinski 2nd-time-through | Δ +5–7% LAD | FIP worsens deeper into starts; early traffic elevates risk. |
| Wind direction flips (out to LF) | Δ +3–4% PIT | Boosts Cruz/Pham pull power vs LHP if wind aids to LF. |
| Bullpen leverage fatigue (PIT) | Δ +3% either way | If Pirates’ middle relief taxed, late-inning run expectancy favors LAD. |
| Ump strike-zone tightness | Δ ±2–3% | Tighter zone reduces Kershaw called-strike edge; neutralizes some soft contact. |
Source: FanGraphs splits; ESPN Kershaw form; Weather
FAQ
What time is the game?
Scheduled for Tue, Sep 2, 2025 • 6:40 PM ET.
Will official lineups be added?
Yes — replace “Projected” with “Official” approximately 60 minutes before start once teams are confirmed.
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Informational purposes only. No guarantee of outcomes. Not financial advice. Trademarks belong to their respective owners.