Win Rate
Paris SG 78%
Draw
14%
Angers
8%
Most common scoreline 3–0 · O2.5 66% / U2.5 34%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: French Ligue 1 2025/26, Matchday 2
- Date & Time: Fri, Aug 22, 2025 — 2:45 PM ET (18:45 UTC)
- Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris
- Broadcast: US: beIN SPORTS / beIN CONNECT; France: per LFP broadcasters schedule; India: FanCode
- Referee/VAR: Referee: Hakim Ben El Hadj · VAR: TBA
- Weather (Kick-off): ~72–76°F (22–24°C), partly cloudy, light WNW winds; low shower risk.
Sources: PSG fixture overview · Match hub (PSG) · Listing & KO time · Referee/fixture page · LFP calendar · US TV (beIN) · Weather (hourly) · Weather (Met Office) · FanCode (India)
2) Lineups & Setup
Paris SG (4-3-3, projected)
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Nuno Mendes; Ugarte, Zaïre-Emery, Vitinha; Dembélé, Kolo Muani, Barcola.
Predicteds from aggregate outlets; confirm official XI ~60’ before KO.
Angers (4-2-3-1, projected)
Koffi; back four & double-pivot rotated; vertical wingers supporting a lone 9. (TBA 60’ pre-KO.)
Angers likely compact mid-block with quick outlet to wide channels.
Sources: Predicted/Live Lineups (FotMob) · SofaScore
3) Medical & Condition
- Paris SG: No fresh major injuries publicly reported midweek; routine rotation possible after a busy August. Monitor final training notes.
- Angers: Core group available; late fitness checks on a couple of starters reported locally. Official bulletin pending.
Sources: PSG match hub · Preview round-up
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Paris SG: Depth across wide/CM areas supports aggressive 4-3-3; early home opener at the Parc adds statement-game incentive.
- Angers: Second season back in top flight; early points vs elite sides carry outsized survival value.
Sources: Fixture context (PSG)
5) Public Opinion & Context
- H2H dominance: PSG unbeaten in last 20 vs Angers (19W-1D). High public confidence in home win.
Sources: H2H/Insights (FotMob) · Market/TV snapshot
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Poisson + Dixon–Coles (correlation adj.), Elo (last season weighted), home/away splits, opponent strength, availability, weather. 100k sims; isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Paris SG 2.4 · Angers 0.8
- Win/Draw/Loss: 78% / 14% / 8% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 3–0 (Alternatives: 2–0, 3–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 66% · Under 34%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Full-back availability (Hakimi/Mendes): any absence → PSG λ −0.20; Win −4–5%p.
- Angers shot suppression + Koffi save% spike → U2.5 +7%p.
- Ref tempo (Ben El Hadj) & early goal timing → variance in total goals (Δ ±6%p O2.5).
Quality Metrics — Coverage 84 · Confidence 66
Sources: Fixture/H2H/official ref · Weather baseline
7) Final Verdict
Summary: PSG’s territory and width should pin Angers deep, with chance volume building through overlaps and second-phase entries. Angers’ route is transition + set-pieces; the away goal lives but requires high-end GK performance.
- Result: PSG win (draw guard minimal)
- Score: 3–0 (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Lean Over 2.5 (~66%) unless late rain/rotation.
Sources: Fixture/time (SofaScore) · Market/TV
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.