Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United — Preview (Aug 31, 2025)

Football (Soccer)
Venue: City Ground, Nottingham
All times ET

Summary: Forest are unbeaten after two and face a winless West Ham. Our calibrated model leans Forest, citing recent H2H dominance at the City Ground and West Ham’s defensive slide.

About this preview

Written by MS Sports Analytics — football data modeling & SEO. Reviewed by Editorial QA — compliance & fact-check.
Published: Aug 30, 2025 • Updated: Aug 30, 2025 Overview Weather / Conditions Lineups Medical Tactical Key Facts Player to Watch H2H & Form Stats Assessment Sensitivity FAQ

Match Overview

League	English Premier League
Season	2025–26
Date	Aug 31, 2025 • 9:00 AM ET
Venue	City Ground (Nottingham, England)
Officials	TBD (PGMOL not posted at publish time)

Source: ESPN match listing & info; West Ham official match guide.

Weather / Conditions

Forecast around kickoff: mild and partly cloudy. Comfortable playing temps and light breeze; weather impact rated low.

Temp 17–19°C
Precip 20–35%
Wind 3–5 m/s
Roof: Outdoor

Source: Weather model snapshot for Nottingham on 2025-08-31.

Lineups & Environment

Nottingham Forest — Predicted XI (4-2-3-1)

Style: Direct transitions + wide isolations, Gibbs-White as primary connector.
XI: Matz Sels; Ola Aina, Nikola Milenković, Murillo, Neco Williams; Ibrahim Sangaré, Elliot Anderson; Dan Ndoye, Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi; Chris Wood.
Bench: Turner, Boly, Yates, Domínguez, McAtee, Awoniyi (fitness watch), Moreira.

Sources: Sports Mole predicted XI; SportsGambler projected lineup.

West Ham United — Predicted XI (4-4-2 / 3-5-2 hybrid)

Style: Set-piece supply via Ward-Prowse; Bowen as primary outlet; Paquetá between lines (status watch).
XI: Mads Hermansen; Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Jean-Clair Todibo, Max Kilman, Emerson; Edouard Diouf, Tomáš Souček, James Ward-Prowse, Lucas Paquetá; Jarrod Bowen, Niclas Füllkrug (or Callum Wilson).
Bench: Areola, Mavropanos, Aguerd, Magassa, George Earthy (Q), Mateus Fernandes, Cornet.

Sources: Sports Mole predicted XI; SportsGambler projected lineup; club site match guide.

Note: Replace “Predicted” with “Official” once lineups are released (~60’ before start).

Medical & Condition

Nottingham Forest

Out: TBD (no major confirmed absences at publish time).
Doubtful/Questionable: Monitoring general knocks; watch matchday updates.
Returning (reduced curve): TBD.

Source: Premier Injuries (club page); PL injury roundup.

West Ham United

Out: Crysencio Summerville (thigh), Luis Guilherme (shoulder).
Doubtful/Questionable: George Earthy (ankle) — limited training.
Returning (reduced curve): TBD.

Sources: NBC Sports PL injury table; Premier Injuries (club page).

Player & Tactical Analysis

Forest’s wide pair (Hudson-Odoi, Ndoye) attack early in transition with Gibbs-White feeding Wood. The hosts draw fouls around the box, where set-piece delivery has been productive. West Ham remain dangerous from corners and direct-free-kicks via Ward-Prowse, with Bowen’s diagonal runs the main outlet. If Paquetá starts, his reception between lines is West Ham’s best route to chance quality.

Sources: Opta Analyst MD3 preview context; team news round-ups (Guardian) and club guide.

Key Facts

Forest are given a 55.0% win chance by Opta’s supercomputer for MD3 (Draw 23.8%, West Ham 21.1%).
Forest have won their last three league meetings with West Ham and kept four straight home clean sheets vs Hammers in recent meetings at the City Ground.
West Ham have conceded eight goals in their opening two league matches (3-0 at Sunderland, 1-5 vs Chelsea) and exited the EFL Cup 3-2 at Wolves.
Kickoff: Sun Aug 31, 2025 — 2:00 PM BST (9:00 AM ET) at City Ground.

Sources: Opta Analyst; ESPN H2H + fixtures; ESPN results.

Player to Watch

Nottingham Forest — Chris Wood (ST)

Early-season output and historic scoring vs West Ham make Wood a focal point. With wide supply and second-phase set pieces, he projects the highest non-pen xG for Forest.

Source: ESPN team stats/top scorers; Opta Analyst notes.

West Ham United — Jarrod Bowen (RW/CF)

Primary outlet for transition attacks; carries most of West Ham’s shot volume and final-third entries. If West Ham score, Bowen involvement probability is elevated.

Source: ESPN player pages; club guide context.

Head-to-Head & Form Context

Head-to-Head

Last 5 meetings	WHU 1–2 NFO (May 18, 2025); NFO 3–0 WHU (Nov 2, 2024); NFO 2–0 WHU (Feb 17, 2024); WHU 3–2 NFO (Nov 12, 2023); WHU 4–0 NFO (Feb 25, 2023)
All-time record	Historically close; recent tilt to Forest.

Source: ESPN H2H panel.

Form & Momentum

Nottingham Forest last 5	W 3–1 vs Brentford; D 1–1 at Crystal Palace; (preseason) D 0–0 vs Fiorentina; D 0–0 vs Qadsia SC; L 0–1 at Birmingham*
West Ham United last 5	L 0–3 at Sunderland; L 1–5 vs Chelsea; L 2–3 at Wolves (EFL Cup); W 2–1 vs Lille (fr.); W 2–0 at Bournemouth (fr.)

Sources: TheSportsDB team pages (recent results); ESPN results. *Preseason friendlies noted where relevant.

Statistics & Simulations

xG proxy (for/against)	Forest ~2.0 / ~1.0 per match (2 GP) vs West Ham ~0.5 / ~4.0 per match (2 GP)
Set-piece share (proxy)	Forest: moderate threat; West Ham: above-average driven by Ward-Prowse deliveries.
Press/Transition notes	Forest target early wide breaks; West Ham lean on direct balls to Bowen/Füllkrug and dead-ball situations.

Poisson/DC W–D–L	Nottingham Forest 55% — Draw 24% — West Ham United 21%
Total goals (O/U)	U3 56% • O3 44%
Likely scorelines	2–0, 2–1, 1–0 (Forest); alt: 1–1

Sources: Opta Analyst MD3 probabilities (used for calibration); ESPN early-season scoring/GA for proxies.

Final Assessment

Model-calibrated probabilities (sum ≈ 100%):

Home win: 55%
Draw/Tie: 24%
Away win: 21%

Key drivers: Forest wide transition edge; West Ham early-season xGA and set-piece dependence; recent City Ground H2H trend to Forest; Paquetá availability swing.

Sensitivity (Top-5 Drivers)

Driver	Δ Impact	Notes
Lucas Paquetá starts 75+’	Δ +6–8% WHU win	Chance creation between lines; status watch amid transfer noise.
Forest first-goal within 30’	Δ +12–15% NFO win	Opens transition lanes; boosts Wood NP-xG chain.
Set-piece differential (≥+2 WHU corners/FKs)	Δ +5% WHU draw/win	Ward-Prowse delivery remains elite.
Wind & rain uptick (>6 m/s, steady rain)	Δ +4–6% Under3	Cross quality drops; aerial duels increase.
Forest wide availability (CHO + Ndoye both start)	Δ +5–7% NFO win	Isolations vs WHU full-backs/wing-backs.

Source: Model stress tests & scenario sims.

FAQ

What time is the game?

Scheduled for Aug 31, 2025 • 9:00 AM ET.

Will official lineups be added?

Yes — replace “Predicted” with “Official” approximately 60 minutes before start once teams are confirmed.

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Informational purposes only. No guarantee of outcomes. Not financial advice. Trademarks belong to their respective owners. Bet responsibly.