Win Rate
Newcastle 27%
Draw
26%
Liverpool
47%
Most common scoreline 1–2 · O2.5 58% / U2.5 42%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: Premier League 2025–26, Matchweek 2
- Date & Time (ET): Mon, Aug 25, 2025 · 3:00 PM ET (8:00 PM BST / 19:00 UTC)
- Venue: St James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
- Broadcast (US): USA Network & Universo; streaming via NBC platforms / Fubo
- Referee/VAR: Simon Hooper (Ref) · John Brooks (VAR)
- Weather (Kick-off): TBD
Sources: Premier League match page (fixture & venue) · ESPN fixture grid — Mon 8/25, 20:00 UK · Sports Illustrated — KO 8pm BST, Ref Hooper/VAR Brooks · LiveSoccerTV — USA Network/Universo/NBC Sports App · USA Network schedule (Mon 3:00 PM ET).
2) Lineups & Setup
Newcastle United (4-3-3 expected)
Pope; Trippier, Schär, Burn, Livramento; Bruno Guimarães, Tonali, Joelinton; Elanga, Gordon, Barnes.
Note: Alexander Isak excluded amid transfer standoff; Eddie Howe has rotated Gordon centrally when needed.
Liverpool (4-2-3-1 expected)
Alisson; RB: Endo or Szoboszlai, Konaté, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo; Ekitiké.
RB choice hinges on fitness at right-back; Frimpong unavailable.
Sources: ESPN preview — Isak out; NUFC XI shape · Evening Standard — Predicted LFC XI (Endo@RB) · Sports Mole — Predicted LFC XI (Szoboszlai@RB).
3) Medical & Condition
- Newcastle: Alexander Isak — out (club decision amid transfer dispute). Joe Willock (ankle) doubt.
- Liverpool: Jeremie Frimpong — out (hamstring). Conor Bradley, Joe Gomez — doubts.
Sources: Guardian — Howe on Isak situation · Yahoo — Isak ruled out vs Liverpool · Evening Standard — LFC injuries · Sports Mole — injury list.
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Newcastle: Isak seeking move; club stands firm on valuation — ongoing selection shadow over #9 role.
- Liverpool: Active in market (e.g., Marc Guéhi links) but Slot backs current group.
Sources: Sky Sports — Isak stance · ESPN — transfer context.
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Kick-off verified: 8:00 PM BST → 3:00 PM ET Monday.
- H2H snapshot: Liverpool have held the edge in recent league meetings; NUFC did win the League Cup meeting in Mar 2025.
- Officials: Simon Hooper (Ref), John Brooks (VAR).
Sources: Sports Illustrated — KO & officials · ESPN match hub — recent meetings.
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Dixon–Coles–adjusted Poisson (home/away strength, last-10 EWMA, opponent quality), with availability adjustments (Isak out; LFC RB uncertainty). 100k sims; isotonic calibration (Platt/Isotonic references below).
- Expected Goals λ: Newcastle 1.25 · Liverpool 1.55
- Win/Draw/Loss: 27% / 26% / 47% (sums 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–2 (Alternatives: 1–1, 0–2)
- O/U 2.5: Over 58% · Under 42%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ −4pp LFC win if Bradley fit & starts (RB stability ↑; Szoboszlai remains in MF).
- Δ +5% goals if early goal ≤25′ (transitions open; BTTS ↑).
- Δ −3pp LFC win if Isak unexpectedly available (central finishing ↑; set-piece threat ↑).
Method refs: Dixon–Coles model; probability calibration via Platt/Isotonic.
References: Dixon & Coles (1997) · DC overview PDF · sklearn calibration.
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Without Isak, Newcastle’s shot quality and box presence dip, while Liverpool carry a well-oiled press and multiple finishers. RB fitness is the visitors’ swing factor; if Endo/Szoboszlai covers cleanly, the champs hold the edge.
- Result: Slight Liverpool win lean (draw cover reasonable)
- Score: 1–2 baseline (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Lean Over 2.5 (58%).
Sources: see listings above (PL/ESPN/SI/LiveSoccerTV; injury/team-news pages).
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.