Win Rate
Marseille 52%
Draw
26%
Paris FC
22%
Most common scoreline Marseille 1–0 · O2.5 47% / U2.5 53%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: Ligue 1 2025–26, Round 2
- Date & Time: Sat, 23 Aug 2025 — 11:00 AM ET (15:00 UTC)
- Venue: Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
- Broadcast (US): beIN SPORTS / beIN SPORTS en Español / beIN CONNECT / fubo
- Referee/VAR: Marc Bollengier (Ref) / VAR: Yohann Rouinsard & Yann Flament
- Weather (Kick-off): Sunny ~84–87°F (29–31°C), WNW wind ~15–20 mph, 0% precip.
Sources: Official Fixtures (ESPN) · Broadcast page (beIN) · AP listing · Referee Assignments (OM) · Weather (weather.com)
2) Lineups & Setup
Marseille (4-2-3-1)
Rulli; Murillo, Egan-Riley, Balerdi, U. Garcia; Højbjerg, (Kondogbia TBD fitness); Greenwood, A. Gomes, Gouiri; Aubameyang.
Notes: Rabiot & Rowe excluded after internal incident; Aubameyang expected to start; Kondogbia status conflicting (Rotowire lists out; some previews list possible start).
Paris FC (4-4-2)
Nkambadio; De Smet, Otávio, Mbow, Sangui; Moses Simon, Lopez, Doucet, Kebbal; Hamel, Krasso.
Notes: Newly promoted Paris FC lean on compact 4-4-2 and quick outlets to Simon/Kebbal.
Sources: Sports Mole predicted XIs · FotMob match page · Reuters (Rabiot/Rowe) · ESPN (discipline)
3) Medical & Condition
- Marseille: Rabiot & Rowe sidelined for disciplinary reasons; Kondogbia TBD; Facundo Medina ankle knock (doubt). Igor Paixão still working back to fitness.
- Paris FC: No major fresh injuries reported; De Smet returns from suspension.
Sources: RMC Sport (Medina) · Sports Mole team news
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Marseille: Angel Gomes joined on a free and is expected to start in advanced role; Greenwood remains central to OM’s attack.
- Paris FC: Promoted to Ligue 1 for 2025–26; Moses Simon reported arrival adds top-flight speed/transition threat.
Sources: beIN — Angel Gomes to OM · ESPN — Greenwood to OM · France 24 — Paris FC promoted · Blueprint — Moses Simon medical
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Market leans OM at home (1X2 consensus ~ OM heavy favorite).
- Context: OM lost 0–1 at Rennes (MD1); Paris FC lost 0–1 at Angers (MD1).
- Recent H2H: This is a rare top-flight matchup in the modern era.
Sources: FDJ odds snapshot · OM results · Paris FC results · FotMob (fixture context)
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Poisson + Dixon–Coles (correlation adjustment), Elo, last-10 form, opponent strength, lineup availability, and weather/wind adjustment. 100k sims with Platt/Isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Marseille 1.52 · Paris FC 0.83
- Win/Draw/Loss: 52% / 26% / 22% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–0 Marseille (Alt: 2–0, 2–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 47% · Under 53%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Aubameyang starts >60′ vs bench: Δ Home win ≈ +4%.
- Wind >25 km/h (cross efficiency ↓): Δ Total goals ≈ −0.2.
- Paris FC start Simon+Krasso together (transitions ↑): Δ BTTS ≈ +6%.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 88 · Confidence 64
Sources: Model notes (Dixon–Coles) · Skellam (goal diff)
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Marseille’s home edge and higher individual shot quality (Greenwood/Gouiri) are balanced by a compact Paris FC 4-4-2 and strong set-piece organization. With Rabiot/Rowe out, Angel Gomes becomes the key connector. Expect OM control (55–58% poss.) and 1–2 clear xG chances more than PFC.
- Result: Lean Marseille win (draw guard advisable if risk-averse).
- Score: 1–0 (±1 goal range).
- O/U: Under 2.5 slightly favored (53%).
Sources: Fixture base · Team news summary
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.