Win Rate
Mallorca 34%
Draw
31%
Celta Vigo
35%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 39% / U2.5 61%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: LaLiga EA SPORTS 2025/26, Matchday 2
- Date & Time: Sat, Aug 23, 2025 — 11:00 AM ET
- Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca
- Broadcast: ESPN+/ESPN Deportes (USA)
- Referee/VAR: José Luis Guzmán Mansilla / Daniel Jesús Trujillo Suárez
- Weather (Kick-off): ~88°F (31°C), Sunny, SSW ~13 mph, precip 0–10%
Sources: Official Fixtures · Broadcast Info · Referee (aggregated) · Weather
2) Lineups & Setup
Mallorca (projected 3-4-2-1)
Leo Román; Valjent, Raíllo, Kumbulla; Morey, Mascarell, Darder, Mojica; Pablo Torre, Takuma Asano; Mateo Joseph.
Notes: Vedat Muriqi (susp.), Manu Morlanes (susp.); Samu Costa (inj.). Kumbulla available; Maffeo managed for fitness.
Celta Vigo (projected 3-4-3)
Ionuț Radu; Mingueza, Yoel Lago, Marcos Alonso; Carreira, Fran Beltrán, Ilaix Moriba, Ristić; Iago Aspas, Ferran Jutglà, Pablo Durán.
Notes: Starfelt (hamstring) out; Hugo Álvarez (flu) not traveling; Aidoo, Cervi omitted amid exit talks; youngster Damián Rodríguez included.
Sources: Predicted XIs · Arrasate presser · Celta medical
3) Medical & Condition
- Mallorca: Vedat Muriqi (one-match ban), Manu Morlanes (one-match ban), Samu Costa (knee—out).
- Celta Vigo: Starfelt (grade-I biceps femoris), Hugo Álvarez (flu), Aidoo/Cervi not in squad (club decisions/market).
Sources: Muriqi & Morlanes bans · Álvarez (flu) · Starfelt injury · Celta medical page
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Mallorca: Arrasate publicly defends Cyle Larin’s continuity; player still linked with exit talk.
- Celta Vigo: Squad spots tight; potential outgoings (Aidoo/Cervi) while exploring additions incl. GK options.
Sources: Arrasate on Larin · Larin exit chatter · Celta market/squad status
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Mood at Son Moix tense after opening-day officiating controversy; both teams lost MD1.
- H2H (last 5): MLL 1W, 1D, 3L vs CEL — last meeting at Son Moix ended 1–2.
Sources: H2H/Recent Records · Spain TV/time context
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Poisson + Dixon–Coles (correlation adj.), Elo, last-10 (EWMA), opponent strength, lineup availability, heat/referee adjustments. 100k sims & Platt/Isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Mallorca 0.95 · Celta Vigo 1.03
- Win/Draw/Loss: 34% / 31% / 35% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–1 (Alternatives: 0–1, 1–0)
- O/U 2.5: Over 39% · Under 61%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Muriqi suspension → Mallorca non-pen xG −0.18 to −0.25 (Δ home win −3–4%).
- Starfelt absence → Celta set-piece xGA +0.12 (Δ draw +1–2%).
- Heat @ 17:00 local → tempo −6–9% shots (Δ Under +2–3%).
Quality Metrics — Coverage 86/100 · Confidence 64/100
Sources: Model Explanation
7) Final Verdict
Summary: With Muriqi & Morlanes suspended, Mallorca’s central punch is reduced; Celta also weakened at CB (Starfelt) but has veteran creators (Aspas, Beltrán). Heat likely suppresses tempo. Net read: narrow, low-variance game tilted toward a stalemate or one-goal margin.
- Result: Conservative lean — Draw / slight Celta edge.
- Score: 1–1 (±1 goal range).
- O/U: Under 2.5 preferred zone (≈61%).
Sources: Verdict basis (H2H/form)
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly. Not financial advice, bet responsibly.