Win Rate
Lorient 29%
Draw
28%
Rennes
43%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 49% / U2.5 51%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: French Ligue 1 2025–26, Matchweek 2
- Date & Time (ET): Sun, Aug 24, 2025 · 9:00 AM ET (15:00 CEST / 13:00 UTC)
- Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat – Le Moustoir (Stade du Moustoir), Lorient
- Broadcast (US): beIN SPORTS / beIN CONNECT (listing)
- Referee/VAR: TBD at time of writing
- Weather (Kick-off): TBD on matchday
Sources: FC Lorient ticketing — Sun 24 Aug, 15:00 CEST · SofaScore — 13:00 UTC, stadium · L’Équipe calendar — Lorient 15:00 local · TheSportsDB league list (slot) · TheStatsZone — how to watch (US beIN).
2) Lineups & Setup
Lorient (3-4-2-1 expected)
Mvogo; Talbi, Igor Silva, Adjei*; Mvuka, Abergel, Kouassi, Mendy; Bamba, Pagis; Tosin.
Notes: Depth pieces Cadiou/Fadiga monitored; centre-back Faye sidelined.
Rennes (4-2-3-1 expected)
Mandanda; Assignon, Theate/Jaquet, Omari, Merlin; Santamaría, Rieder; Al-Tamari, Gouri/Blas, Terrier; Kalimuendo.
Sources: WhoScored preview (kick-off & team news) · Sports Mole — predicted XIs.
3) Medical & Condition
- Lorient: Out — Abdoulaye Faye (foot). Doubts — Noah Cadiou, Bandiougou Fadiga (muscle/fitness).
- Rennes: Out — Lilian Brassier (ankle). Others: routine knocks monitored.
Sources: RotoWire — Faye out · Sports Mole — Lorient absences · RotoWire — Brassier out.
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Lorient: continuity core (Abergel, Mvogo, Talbi) with pace on flanks; promoted back to L1, home opener energy at Le Moustoir.
- Rennes: top-6 ambition; wide creation via Terrier/Al-Tamari, solidity from Santamaría/Rieder; rotation possible at CB with Brassier unavailable.
Sources: SofaScore — venue · WhoScored — Rennes squad profile.
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Kick-off verified: 15:00 CEST local → 9:00 AM ET (13:00 UTC).
- Sentiment: neutral-to-Rennes lean among previews; some outlets highlight Lorient’s H2H home form.
Sources: L’Équipe — 15:00 local · Forebet — match note · Sportskeeda — prediction angle.
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Dixon–Coles–adjusted Poisson with EWMA recent form, home/away strength, opponent quality, lineup availability. 100k sims; isotonic calibration. Market de-vig used for a sanity check.
- Expected Goals λ: Lorient 1.08 · Rennes 1.32
- Win/Draw/Loss: 29% / 28% / 43% (sums 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–1 (Alternatives: 0–1, 1–2)
- O/U 2.5: Over 49% · Under 51%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ−3% Rennes win if Terrier starts on bench (chance creation dips).
- Δ+3–4% goals if Lorient score first ≤25’ (game-state opens; Rennes pushes line higher).
- Δ−2% Lorient win if Abergel is limited (progression/press resistance falls).
Quality Metrics — Coverage 85% · Confidence 64% (KO/venue/match listing validated by multiple Tier-1/2 sources).
Method: Dixon–Coles (1997).
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Rennes bring the deeper attacking suite, but Lorient’s structure at Le Moustoir and set-piece value keep this tight. Model edges the visitors; draw is highly live.
- Result: Rennes or Draw (conservative away-win/draw stance)
- Score: 1–1 baseline (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Slight lean Under 2.5 (51%).
Sources: L’Équipe schedule · SofaScore match page.
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.