Win Rate
Barcelona 76%
Draw
15%
Levante
9%
Most common scoreline 0–2 · O2.5 58% / U2.5 42%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: Spanish La Liga 2025–26, Matchday 2
- Date & Time (ET): Sat, Aug 23, 2025 · 3:30 PM ET (21:30 CEST / 19:30 UTC)
- Venue: Estadi Ciutat de València (Ciudad de Valencia), Valencia
- Broadcast (US): ESPN+/ESPN Deportes (regional listings vary)
- Referee/VAR: TBD (not posted at press time)
- Weather (Kick-off): TBD (matchday forecast)
Sources: TheSportsDB event (19:30 UTC), ESPN match page, FC Barcelona — where to watch, AS kickoff (21:30 CEST).
2) Lineups & Setup
Levante (5-3-2 expected)
Campos; Elgezabal, Fuente, Cabello; Toljan, Lozano, Rey, Sánchez; Martínez; Romero, Brugué.
Barcelona (4-2-3-1 expected)
Joan García; Koundé, Araújo, Cubarsí, Balde; Pedri, De Jong; Lamine Yamal, Fermín, Raphinha; Ferran Torres.
Notes: Out — Ter Stegen (back). Doubt — Lewandowski (hamstring) per latest preview updates.
Sources: Sports Mole — injuries & predicted XIs
3) Medical & Condition
- Levante: Out — Alfonso Pastor (hand). Doubts — Jon Olasagasti (thigh), Kervin Arriaga (thigh), Goduine Koyalipou (muscle), Alan Matturro (muscle).
- Barcelona: Out — Marc-André ter Stegen (back). Lewandowski (hamstring) monitoring.
Sources: Sports Mole (team news), Yahoo — Ter Stegen injury validation.
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Levante: Newly promoted to La Liga; early home points are high-value for survival targets.
- Barcelona: Title defense under Hansi Flick; injury to starting GK forces continuity with Joan García/Peña rotation.
Sources: Club info drop · ESPN Levante hub (25/26).
5) Public Opinion & Context
- H2H snapshot: AS notes Barça dominate historically (32W–6L–7D across 45 meetings), but Ciutat de València can be tricky.
- Market view: US books list Barça near **-400** away; draw and Levante long prices.
Sources: AS H2H/time · CBS Sports — time & odds snapshot.
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Dixon–Coles–adjusted Poisson with home/away strength, last-10 EWMA, opponent quality, and availability. 100k sims with isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Barcelona 2.05 · Levante 0.75
- Win/Draw/Loss: 76% / 15% / 9% (sums 100.0%) — aligned to de-vigged market.
- Most Common Scoreline: 0–2 (Alternatives: 1–2, 0–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 58% · Under 42%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ−3–4% Barça win if Lewandowski limited (finishing depth & set-piece threat).
- Δ+3% Barça win if Levante miss 1–2 doubtful starters (Olasagasti/Koyalipou/Matturro).
- Δ+2–3% goals if early Barça lead (≤25’) — game-state expansion at away favorite.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 86% · Confidence 70% (stable drivers: market/odds alignment, confirmed KO time/venue, injury table).
Source (method): Dixon–Coles paper.
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Levante’s compact 5-3-2 and counter threat make this a focus test, but Barcelona’s quality in wide/half-spaces and set-pieces should tilt it. Expect territory control and shot-quality edge for the champions.
- Result: Barcelona win (FT)
- Score: 0–2 (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Lean Over 2.5 (58%).
Sources: AS preview/time · ESPN match hub.
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.