Win Rate
Genoa 46%
Draw
30%
Lecce
24%
Most common scoreline 1–0 (GEN) · O2.5 39% / U2.5 61%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: Serie A 2025–26, Round 1
- Date & Time: Sat, Aug 23, 2025 — 12:30 PM ET
- Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Marassi), Genoa
- Broadcast (US): Paramount+ (CBS Sports schedule)
- Referee/VAR: Davide Massa / Abisso (AVAR: Maresca)
- Weather (kick-off): Genova ~26–28°C (79–82°F), partly cloudy, light S wind, low rain chance
Sources: Official Fixture (SofaScore card) · CBS/Paramount+ schedule · Referee designations (Sky Sport) · Genoa hourly weather
2) Lineups & Setup
Genoa (4-2-3-1, projected)
Leali; Norton-Cuffy, Marcandalli/Østigård, Vásquez, Aarón Martín; Masini, Frendrup; Carboni, Stanciu/Malinovskyi, Grønbæk; Colombo.
Notes: Østigård vs Marcandalli at RCB; Stanciu vs Malinovskyi as #10; Colombo slightly ahead of Vitinha for ST.
Lecce (4-3-3, projected)
Falcone; Kouassi/Veiga, Kialonda Gaspar, Tiago Gabriel, Gallo; L. Coulibaly, Pierret, Helgason; Morente, CF option, N’Dri/Sottil.
Notes: Right-back choice (Kouassi vs Veiga); wide rotations (Morente/N’Dri/Sottil). Pierotti suspended.
Sources: WhoScored preview · Sky Sport probable XIs · TMW probabili
3) Medical & Condition
- Genoa: Ekuban and Otoa sidelined (per-Club/Italian reports); fitness checks on depth pieces closer to international break.
- Lecce: Gaby Jean (ACL) and Filip Marchwiński (knee) out; Pierotti suspended.
Sources: Sports Mole team news · Sky injuries/suspensions
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Genoa: Added Lorenzo Colombo on loan from AC Milan; Valentín Carboni in on loan from Inter — both push starting roles immediately.
- Lecce: Depth retooling around wide/FB positions; reliance on returning core while injured attackers recover.
Sources: AC Milan — Colombo to Genoa (official) · Inter — Carboni loan (official)
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Market leans Genoa at home (typical ranges ~45–57% win implied, draw 24–30%, Lecce 17–29%).
- Last season: Genoa mid-table solidity; Lecce survived with low scoring profile.
Sources: OddsPortal aggregator · Oddspedia implied probs · WhoScored H2H/context
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Model stack: Elo + last-10 (EWMA), home/away splits, xG trend (Opta via FBref), Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson. 100k sims; isotonic calibration. Weather/referee adjustments applied.
- Expected Goals λ: Genoa 1.25 · Lecce 0.83
- Win/Draw/Loss: 46.0% / 30.0% / 24.0% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–0 (GEN) (Alternatives: 1–1, 2–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 39% · Under 61%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- ❶ Genoa #9 efficiency (Colombo vs alternative) — ΔWin ≈ +4–6% if early goal.
- ❷ Lecce right-side selection (Kouassi vs Veiga) vs Genoa left channel overlaps — ΔGEN xG ≈ +0.10.
- ❸ Referee card rate (Massa ~4–5 yellows/gm historically) → set-piece volume swing — totals tilt Under if fewer fouls.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 86 · Confidence 64
Sources: FBref Genoa 24/25 (Opta) · FBref Lecce 24/25 (Opta) · Davide Massa cards profile
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Genoa’s structured mid-block and stronger left-channel combinations (Martín + Grønbæk/Carboni) profile well against Lecce’s rebuilt right side. Lecce’s chance hinges on transition moments and Falcone’s shot-stopping; set-pieces are a live route for both, slightly favoring Genoa.
- Result: Lean Genoa win / Genoa-Draw (safer)
- Score: 1–0 (±1 goal)
- O/U: Under 2.5 preferred (model 61% Under)
Basis: Fixture card · League baselines (FBref/Opta)
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.