Win Rate
Heidenheim 31.8%
Draw
28.6%
Wolfsburg
39.6%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 54.7% / U2.5 45.3%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: German Bundesliga 2025/26, Round 1
- Date & Time: Sat, 23 Aug 2025 · 09:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC)
- Venue: Voith-Arena (15,000), Heidenheim an der Brenz
- Broadcast: ESPN+ (US). Check local listings in your region.
- Referee / VAR: Benjamin Brand (SR) / Günter Perl (VAR)
- Weather (KO): Cool & partly cloudy ~64–67°F, light NW breeze, low rain chance (<10%).
Sources: Official event (TheSportsDB) · FCH fixture notice · ESPN+ coverage · Referee appointments · Timeanddate, Weather.com, AccuWeather
2) Lineups & Setup
Heidenheim (expected 3-4-2-1)
GK: Kevin Müller · CBs: Patrick Mainka, Tim Siersleben, Benedikt Gimber (if not fit ➜ Norman Theuerkauf) · WBs: Omar Traoré, Jonas Föhrenbach · CM: Niklas Dorsch, Jan Schöppner · AM: Adrian Beck, Tom Wanner · ST: Budu Zivzivadze (alt: Marvin Pieringer if cleared).
Notes: Gimber (hernia) and Pieringer (ankle) have been monitored; depth options include Sirlord Conteh & Mathias Honsak.
Wolfsburg (expected 4-2-3-1)
GK: Kamil Grabara · RB: Joakim Mæhle · CBs: Sebastiaan Bornauw, Konstantinos Koulierakis (Moritz Jenz cover) · LB: Rogério (if not fit ➜ Aaron Zehnter) · DM: Maximilian Arnold, Mattias Svanberg · AM: Patrick Wimmer (RW), Lovro Majer (10), Andreas Skov Olsen (LW/RW fitness-cleared) · ST: Tiago Tomás (Jonas Wind doubtful).
Notes: Denis Vavro (adductor) out; Jesper Lindstrøm & Kevin Paredes sidelined; Skov Olsen cleared; Wind not fully ready.
Sources: FotMob predicted XI & referee · Sportsgambler preview · FOX/Rotowire team news (WOB) · Transfermarkt match sheet
3) Medical & Condition
- Heidenheim: Marvin Pieringer (ankle), Benedikt Gimber (hernia), Thomas Keller (ankle), Frank Feller (knee) — statuses monitored.
- Wolfsburg: Denis Vavro (muscle), Kevin Paredes (foot surgery), Jesper Lindstrøm (groin rehab), Mohamed Amoura (hamstring) — out; Rogério (muscle) & Jonas Wind (strain) doubtful; Andreas Skov Olsen cleared.
Sources: Transfermarkt injuries · FOX/Rotowire (WOB)
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Heidenheim: Goalkeeper situation watched closely (long-serving Müller vs. new depth). Continuity elsewhere under Frank Schmidt.
- Wolfsburg: Additions like Vinícius Souza and Jesper Lindstrøm signal a more technical 4-2-3-1; injuries may delay full impact.
Sources: Squad/fitness news · Club site
5) Public Opinion & Context
- H2H last 7: Heidenheim 1W · Draw 1 · Wolfsburg 5W. Wolfsburg historically stronger in this matchup.
- Market trend: slight lean to Wolfsburg on the 1X2; totals near 2.5.
Sources: ESPN H2H · Transfermarkt H2H · Oddspedia odds
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Method: Poisson + Dixon–Coles (correlation) with Elo/home-away splits, recent form EWMA, injuries & weather/tempo. 100k Monte Carlo sims; isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Heidenheim 1.22 · Wolfsburg 1.36
- Win/Draw/Loss: 31.8% / 28.6% / 39.6% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–1 (Alternatives: 1–2, 0–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 54.7% · Under 45.3%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ(WOB win) +4–6% if Jonas Wind starts >60′ (finishing boost).
- Δ(Under 2.5) +5–7% if cooler tempo + NW wind persists (~slow build-up).
- Δ(Heidenheim win) +3–5% if Gimber fully fit (set-piece/aerial defense).
Quality Metrics — Coverage 90/100 · Confidence 64/100
Sources: Model explanation (Dixon–Coles)
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Wolfsburg’s wide quality (Wimmer/Skov Olsen) vs. Heidenheim’s organized back three and strong central pairing (Dorsch/Schöppner). With Brand officiating and cool conditions likely trimming tempo, a narrow away edge exists, but the baseline mode remains 1–1.
- Result: Lean Wolfsburg (win or draw)
- Score: 1–1 (away 1–2 in higher-tempo scenarios)
- O/U: Slight lean to Over 2.5 (≈55%)
Sources: Context preview
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.