Win Rate
Everton 36%
Draw
29%
Brighton
35%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 52% / U2.5 48%
1) Match Overview Official listings
- Competition/Round: English Premier League 2025–26, Matchweek 2
- Date & Time (ET): Sun, Aug 24, 2025 · 9:00 AM ET (14:00 BST / 13:00 UTC)
- Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium (Bramley-Moore Dock), Liverpool
- Broadcast (UK): Sky Sports slot listed for 14:00 UK; US carriage varies by region
- Referee/VAR: Stuart Attwell (Referee); James Bell (VAR) — see refs block
- Weather (Kick-off): TBD (matchday forecast)
Sources: Premier League fixtures (14:00 UK slot) · Everton — Matches (Hill Dickinson Stadium) · Referee appointments (Attwell/Bell)
2) Lineups & Setup
Everton (3-4-3 / 4-2-3-1 hybrid expected)
Pickford; O’Brien, Tarkowski, Keane; Garner, Gueye, Dewsbury-Hall, McNeil; Ndiaye, Beto, Grealish.
Notes: Defensive absences persist — Branthwaite, Mykolenko, Patterson out; Aznou a late fitness check.
Brighton (4-2-3-1 expected)
Verbruggen; Wieffer, van Hecke, Dunk, De Cuyper; Baleba, Ayari; Minteh, O’Riley, Mitoma; Rutter.
Notes: New-look attack under Hürzeler; rotation possible in wide/9 roles.
Sources: Sports Mole — predicted XI (BHA) · LastWordOnSports — predicted Everton XI · SportsGambler — predicted XIs (both) · Royal Blue Mersey — Everton team news
3) Medical & Condition
- Everton: Out — Jarrad Branthwaite (hamstring), Vitalii Mykolenko (muscle), Nathan Patterson (ankle). Late test — Adam Aznou (fitness).
- Brighton: No major fresh absences noted in week-of reports; depth available across midfield/wing.
Sources: OneFootball — Everton injuries · The Guardian — team news roundup
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Everton: New era at the Hill Dickinson Stadium; potential first home start for Jack Grealish (loan) to lift creation in left half-space.
- Brighton: Hürzeler’s structure emphasizes ball-winning double-pivot and vertical wingers; depth fuels second-half threat.
Sources: Everton venue context · Sports Mole — BHA options
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Kick-off/TV: 14:00 BST listing confirmed on PL site (Sky slot); converts to 9:00 AM ET.
- Officials: Attwell (Ref) with Hatzidakis/Hopton (ARs); Nield (4th); Bell (VAR); Betts (AVAR).
- Sentiment: Market/UK previews call this “close” despite Brighton’s attacking depth — new-stadium bump for Everton.
Sources: PL fixtures/time · Ref appointments detail · talkSPORT market angle
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Dixon–Coles–adjusted Poisson with home/away strength, last-10 EWMA, opponent quality, and availability. 100k sims with isotonic calibration; market de-vig for sanity.
- Expected Goals λ: Everton 1.34 · Brighton 1.31
- Win/Draw/Loss: 36% / 29% / 35% (sums 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–1 (Alternatives: 1–0, 0–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 52% · Under 48%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ−3–4% Everton win if Aznou fails late test → reshuffles back line (left-back) and pushes Garner out of midfield.
- Δ+3% Brighton win if Mitoma + Minteh start together (transition speed elevates xThreat on flanks).
- Δ+2–3% goals if early goal ≤25’ — game-state expands; Hürzeler presses for second, or Everton chase with Grealish in L-half space.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 86% · Confidence 67% (stable drivers: verified KO time/venue, ref crew, multi-source injuries).
Method: Dixon–Coles paper
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Everton’s new-stadium lift versus Brighton’s attacking layers makes for a balanced contest. If Everton stabilize the left side and get vertical carries from Grealish/McNeil, points are there; otherwise Brighton’s flank speed and late subs tilt the xG run-rate.
- Result: Conservative stance — Everton or Draw
- Score: 1–1 (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Slight lean Over 2.5 (52%).
Sources: see listings above (PL fixtures, referee appointments, multi-source team news)
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.