Win Rate
Elche 29.6%
Draw
27.1%
Real Betis
43.3%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 44% / U2.5 56%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: LaLiga EA SPORTS 2025/26, Matchday 1
- Date & Time: 2025-08-18 21:00 CEST
- Venue: Estadio Martínez Valero, Elche
- Broadcast: Spain — Movistar Plus+ (M+ LaLiga/Orange TV); USA — ESPN+; UK/IE — Premier Sports & Disney+; MENA — beIN SPORTS
- Referee/VAR: Víctor García (4th: Fernando Bueno) / VAR: Daniel Jesús Trujillo (AVAR: Isidro Díaz de Mera)
- Weather (Kick-off): Clear & hot ~30–31 °C, light E wind ~10 km/h; red heat warning earlier in Alicante south coast
Sources: Official Fixtures · Broadcast Info · Referee Assignments (PDF) · Weather
2) Lineups & Setup
Elche (3-5-2, projected)
Dituro (GK); Affengruber, Bigas, Petrot; Álvaro Núñez, Febas, Marc Aguado, Rodrigo Mendoza, Germán Valera; Mourad, Álvaro Rodríguez.
Eder Sarabia leans on a compact back-three and wing-back width; potential late registrations/new signings could alter the front two.
Real Betis (4-2-3-1, projected)
Pau López (GK); Bellerín, Bartra, Natan, Junior Firpo; Fornals, (Altimira ?); R. Riquelme, AM slot (TBD), RW (Ruibal); ST (Cucho?/Bakambu).
Pellegrini’s midfield availability is thin (Isco/Roca/Deossa out; Altimira a doubt). Expect slower tempo in the heat, more emphasis on wide overloads and set-plays.
Sources: Elche Lineup · Real Betis Lineup
3) Medical & Condition
- Elche: Near full squad; one reported absentee (Yago Santiago, knee) per pre-match reports.
- Real Betis: Isco (long-term), Marc Roca and Deossa not ready; Altimira doubtful — midfield depth limited.
Sources: Elche Medical · Real Betis Medical
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Elche: In advanced talks to add André Silva and Rafa Mir; board working to register reinforcements promptly.
- Real Betis: Pellegrini stresses realism; midfield reshuffle after exits/injuries with youth options covering early weeks.
Sources: Elche Transfers (AS) · Elche Transfers (SER) · Betis Context (AS)
5) Public Opinion & Context
- H2H snapshot: Last 5 in LaLiga — Betis 3W-1D-1L; last at Martínez Valero ended 2-3 (Feb 24, 2023). Market has Betis slight favorite, draw respected.
Sources: H2H/Recent Records · Odds/Market Trends
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Poisson + Dixon–Coles (correlation adjustment), Elo, last 10 matches, opponent strength, lineup availability, weather/referee adjustments. 100k sims & Platt/Isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Elche 1.12 · Real Betis 1.31
- Win/Draw/Loss: 29.6% / 27.1% / 43.3% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–1 (Alternatives: 0–1, 1–2)
- O/U 2.5: Over 44% · Under 56%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ Altimira starts (Betis CM): Betis win +2.2pp; U2.5 −0.7pp.
- Δ Heat index +3 °C at KO: U2.5 +3.1pp; total λ −0.10.
- Δ Elche debut ST (André Silva or Rafa Mir) available: Elche win +1.8pp; O2.5 +0.9pp.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 0.92 · Confidence 0.64
Sources: Model Explanation
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Elche vs Real Betis — Hot conditions point to lower tempo; Betis’ wider talent base balances out their midfield absences, while Elche’s structure under Sarabia should keep the game within one goal and leverage set-pieces.
- Result: Lean Real Betis (win-draw safe range)
- Score: 1–1 baseline (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Based on 2.5 line — Over 44% / Under 56% (slight Under lean)
Sources: Final Verdict Basis
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.