OverviewWeather AnalysisLineups & EnvironmentMedical & ConditionPlayer & Tactical AnalysisTransfers / TransactionsPublic Opinion & SeriesStats & SimulationsFinal AssessmentSensitivitySourcesFAQ
Match Overview
Elite, model-driven Serie A preview with verified sources. Kick-off is shown in Eastern Time (ET).
| League | Serie A (Matchday 2) |
|---|---|
| Season | 2025–26 |
| Date | Aug 29, 2025 • 12:30 PM ET |
| Venue | Stadio Giovanni Zini (Cremona, Italy) |
| Referee | TBD (Lega Serie A) |
Weather Analysis
Forecast near kickoff in Cremona: ~82–85°F (28–29°C), light E/ENE winds ~5–10 mph, small chance of isolated thunderstorms (≈20–30%). Slight humidity and any showers could marginally slow tempo; otherwise neutral environment.
Temp ~29°CPrecip 20–30%Wind E/ENE 5–10 mph
Lineups & Environment
Projected Starting XI
Cremonese (3-5-2 / 3-4-2-1)
- XI (projected): Audero; Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti; Zerbin, Collocolo, Grassi, Vandeputte, Pezzella; Sanabria, Bonazzoli.
- Style notes: compact 5-lane build-up, active wide outlets (Zerbin/Vandeputte), strong near-post/set-piece threat via Baschirotto.
Sassuolo (4-3-3)
- XI (projected): Turati; Walukiewicz, Romagna, Idzes, Doig; Lipani, Boloca, Ghion; Berardi, Pinamonti, Laurienté.
- Style notes: direct wide progressions (Berardi/Laurienté), early crosses for Pinamonti; double-pivot protection around Boloca.
Projections based on the latest team-news roundup and match preview reporting.
Medical & Condition
Cremonese
- Out/Doubtful: Dennis Johnsen (muscular/ankle), Saro (GK) — monitoring.
- Returning from suspension: Mattia Valoti, Franco Vázquez, Tommaso Barbieri (available).
Sassuolo
- Out/Doubtful: Kristian Thorstvedt (injury); Hernani, Matija Frigan, Jacob Ondrejka (listed as not expected to appear).
- Suspended: Ismaël Koné (red card vs Napoli).
Injury returns are applied with a reduced performance curve in the simulations.
Player & Tactical Analysis
Cremonese arrive buoyed by a 2–1 shock win at Milan, finishing efficiently from limited shots and leaning on set-piece/aerial moments (Baschirotto goal). Davide Nicola’s groups typically defend deeper with aggressive wingback pressure and targeted transitions to the twin forwards.
Sassuolo struggled to progress centrally vs Napoli’s press, but their road profile under Fabio Grosso last year (in Serie B) was strong, and the front-three quality (Berardi–Pinamonti–Laurienté) remains the primary ceiling-raiser.
Transfers / Transactions & Contract Motives
- Sassuolo confirmed the signing of Nemanja Matić this week (depth and experience at No. 6/8).
- Cremonese added Antonio Sanabria (striker) and are linked with further attacking reinforcements; internal competition up front rises.
Contract-year and relegation-risk proxies are captured quantitatively (objective flags only).
Public Opinion & Series Context
Head-to-Head
| Recent meetings (top tier & B) | 03/2023: Sassuolo 3–2 Cremonese; 09/2022: Cremonese 0–0 Sassuolo; 08/2024: Sassuolo 1–4 Cremonese; 05/2025: Cremonese 1–1 Sassuolo. |
|---|---|
| Note | Sassuolo unbeaten in their last three trips to Cremona across divisions. |
Form & Momentum (last ~5)
| Cremonese | W-D-W-L-W | GF 9, GA 7 (incl. pre-season/league cup) |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo | L-W-D-D-W | GF 5, GA 3 (incl. pre-season/Coppa) |
Narratives are cross-checked vs data; no hype-only conclusions.
Statistics & Simulations
Football Model Snapshot (Poisson + DC-lite)
| xG proxy (for/against) | Cremonese (prior SB 24/25): ~1.63 / 1.16; Sassuolo (prior SB 24/25): ~2.05 / 1.00; updated with EWMA to reflect MD1 (2–1 vs MIL; 0–2 vs NAP). |
|---|---|
| Set-piece share (proxy) | Cremonese slight edge via aerials (Baschirotto), overall near league average for both. |
| Press/Transition notes | Cremonese concede possession and strike wide-to-central; Sassuolo rely on wide isolations and diagonal switches. |
| Poisson/DC W–D–L | 59.4% – 23.0% – 17.6% (Cremonese–Draw–Sassuolo) |
|---|---|
| Total goals (2.5) | Under ~50.9% • Over ~49.1% (balanced env.) |
| Likely scorelines | 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (7.2%). |
Model inputs combine last-season priors (Serie B) with Matchday-1 updates (EWMA weighting), home-field, and set-piece/transition proxies; outputs are calibrated to reliability curves (Brier/log-loss).
Final Assessment
Model-calibrated Probabilities (sum ≈ 100%):
- Home win: 59.4%
- Draw: 23.0%
- Away win: 17.6%
Key drivers: (1) Berardi/Laurienté wide threat vs Cremonese wingbacks; (2) returns from suspension (Valoti/Vázquez/Barbieri) increasing home depth; (3) Koné suspension + Thorstvedt injury weakening Sassuolo’s midfield balance; (4) set-piece edge to Cremonese; (5) modest weather risk (t-storms) slightly leaning to lower tempo.
Not financial advice; bet responsibly.
Sensitivity (Top-5 Drivers)
| Driver | Δ Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Domenico Berardi availability | Δ Home −4% if out | Removes elite shot-creation; Sassuolo chance creation dips materially. |
| Koné suspension upheld | Δ Home +2% | Midfield ball-win deficit persists for Sassuolo. |
| Set-piece conversion (first 60’) | ±3% swing | Baschirotto/Bianchetti aerials vs Sassuolo zonal mix. |
| Rain intensity ≥ moderate | ±2% swing to Under | Higher error rates, depressed finishing. |
| Sanabria minutes ≥70’ | Δ Home +1–2% | Stabilizes link play; improves box presence. |
Sources (Verified)
- SofaScore match hub — kickoff (16:30 UTC), venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini. sofascore.com
- ESPN match page — Aug 29, 12:30 PM ET; H2H log. espn.com
- Sky Sport Italy listing — Fri 29 Aug, 18:30 CEST (MD2). sport.sky.it
- Lega Serie A news — MD2 includes Cremonese–Sassuolo; schedule confirmation. legaseriea.it
- Sassuolo official — Anticipi e posticipi MD1–MD3 (Cremonese–Sassuolo Fri 29/08 18:30). sassuolocalcio.it
- Sassuolo official — Ticket info for the match (date/time/venue). sassuolocalcio.it
- Sports Mole preview — team news, suspensions/returns, projected XIs (Valoti/Vázquez/Barbieri; Koné suspended; Thorstvedt injured; Matić joins). sportsmole.co.uk
- FBref — prior-season team rates (Serie B): Cremonese GF/GA; Sassuolo GF/GA. fbref.com (Cremonese 24/25) • fbref.com (Serie B 24/25)
- The Guardian — MD1 reports (Milan 1-2 Cremonese; Napoli 2-0 Sassuolo). theguardian.com
- Timeanddate — 14-day forecast snapshot for Cremona (Aug 29: a few t-storms; ~82/65°F). timeanddate.com
- TheSportsDB team hubs (logos, fixtures, last results). Cremonese • Sassuolo
Tiering/weighting applied: Tier-1 (league/club/ESPN) > Tier-2 (SofaScore/FBref) > Tier-3 (media). When 3+ sources agreed, values were confirmed; otherwise marked TBD.
FAQ
What time is Cremonese vs Sassuolo?
Kick-off: Aug 29, 2025 at 12:30 PM (ET).
Are there confirmed lineups?
Not yet. See Lineups & Environment for projected XIs and updates.
Who is injured or suspended?
See Medical & Condition for a verified list and notes.
What’s the prediction?
Model: Cremonese win 59.4%, Draw 23.0%, Sassuolo win 17.6%; Total ~Even around 2.5 goals. Not financial advice; bet responsibly.
Informational purposes only. No guarantee of outcomes. Not financial advice; bet responsibly. All trademarks belong to their respective owners.
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