Win Rate
AFC Bournemouth 55%
Draw
23%
Wolverhampton
22%
Most common scoreline Bournemouth 2–1 Wolverhampton · O2.5 55% / U2.5 45%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: English Premier League 2025/26, Matchweek 2
- Date & Time: Sat, 23 Aug 2025 — 15:00 BST (10:00 ET / 23:00 KST)
- Venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
- Broadcast: UK: not televised (3pm) · US: Peacock · International: check local listings
- Referee/VAR: Tom Bramall / Chris Kavanagh
- Weather (Kick-off): Partly cloudy ~22 °C (forecast)
Sources: Premier League Fixtures · US Broadcast · Referees · BBC Weather (Bournemouth)
2) Lineups & Setup
AFC Bournemouth (4-2-3-1)
Official XI announced 60 minutes before KO. Expect 4-2-3-1 with high wide outlets and 4-4-2 pressing shape out of possession.
Notes: Final selection may pivot on fitness checks for several attackers; confirm with official team sheet.
Wolverhampton Wanderers (4-3-3)
Official XI announced 60 minutes before KO. Expect 4-3-3 with pacey wide forwards and compact mid-block.
Sources: AFCB Team News · Wolves Team News
3) Medical & Condition
- AFC Bournemouth: Minor knocks monitored; check matchday update.
- Wolverhampton: Small first-team list reported; re-check close to KO.
Sources: AFCB Official Updates · Premier Injuries
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- AFC Bournemouth: Integration of summer arrivals; competition for wide/No.10 roles.
- Wolves: Added options at RB/wing; selection at right side could shift matchup dynamics.
Sources: BBC Sport – Bournemouth · BBC Sport – Wolves
5) Public Opinion & Context
- H2H snapshot: Even in recent years; goals per game a little over ~2.
- Market view: Books broadly price Bournemouth in the mid-50% win range.
Sources: H2H (FCtables) · Odds (Oddspedia)
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Poisson + Dixon–Coles correlation, calibrated to market H/D/A and totals; 100k Monte Carlo; isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: AFC Bournemouth 1.80 · Wolves 1.06
- Win/Draw/Loss: 55% / 23% / 22% (sums 100%)
- Most Common Scoreline: Bournemouth 2–1 (Alternatives: 2–0, 1–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over ~55% · Under ~45%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Attacker availability for Bournemouth (adds ball progression and chance volume).
- Wolves’ RB choice vs Bournemouth’s left-side runners.
- Referee tempo/cards can raise set-piece value.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 0.90 · Confidence 0.60
Sources: Model Explanation
7) Final Verdict
Summary: With home advantage and better chance creation, Bournemouth hold the edge, while Wolves’ wide pace keeps them live via transitions and set pieces.
- Result: Bournemouth win (safer: Home/Draw double-chance)
- Score: 2–1 (ranges: 2–0 / 1–1)
- O/U: Lean Over 2.5
Sources: ESPN Bournemouth · ESPN Wolves
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.