Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — (Tue, Sep 2, 2025)
- Baseball (MLB)
- Venue: Fenway Park, Boston
- All times ET
Summary: Game 2 at Fenway: ace lefty Garrett Crochet squares off with Slade Cecconi. Clear, cool conditions and Fenway’s extra-base boost set a tight total; markets and models lean Boston.
About this preview
Written by Model Room – Sports Preview — MLB simulation & editorial. Reviewed by Editorial QA — Sourcing/copy verification.
Published: • Updated: OverviewWeather / ConditionsLineupsMedicalTacticalKey FactsPlayer to WatchH2H & FormStatsAssessmentSensitivityFAQ
Match Overview
| League | Major League Baseball (MLB) |
|---|---|
| Season | 2025 |
| Date | Tue, Sep 2, 2025 • 6:45 PM ET |
| Venue | Fenway Park (Boston, USA) |
| Officials | Umpire crew: TBD |
Source: ESPN Game Hub; MLB.com Red Sox Schedule; Meet Boston (event listing)
Weather / Conditions
Clear, dry evening; light winds trending ESE→SSE. No measurable rain expected.
- Temp ~22→18°C (71→64°F)
- Precip 0%
- Wind ~2–3 m/s (ESE→SSE)
- Roof: Outdoor
Source: Swish Analytics (Guardians @ Red Sox 6:45 PM ET); RotoWire MLB Weather
Lineups & Environment
Boston Red Sox — Batting Order
- 1: TBD • 2: TBD • 3: TBD • 4: TBD
- 5: TBD • 6: TBD • 7: TBD • 8: TBD • 9: TBD
- SP: Garrett Crochet (LHP)
Source: ESPN Probables
Cleveland Guardians — Batting Order
- 1: TBD • 2: TBD • 3: TBD • 4: TBD
- 5: TBD • 6: TBD • 7: TBD • 8: TBD • 9: TBD
- SP: Slade Cecconi (RHP)
Source: ESPN Probables
Note: Replace “Predicted” with “Official” once lineups post (~60’ pre-game).
Medical & Condition
Boston Red Sox
- Out: Luis Guerrero (60-day IL), Josh Winckowski (60-day IL), Liam Hendriks (60-day IL).
- Doubtful/Questionable: Wilyer Abreu (10-day IL), Richard Fitts (15-day IL).
- Returning (reduced curve): Monitor daily reports.
Source: ESPN Injury Report (game page)
Cleveland Guardians
- Out: John Means (60-day IL), Lane Thomas (10-day IL).
- Doubtful/Questionable: Gabriel Arias (DTD), Chase DeLauter (7-day IL), Tanner Burns (7-day IL).
- Returning (reduced curve): As activated, expect light pitch/bat caps initially.
Source: ESPN Injury Report (game page)
Player & Tactical Analysis
Crochet (BOS) brings top-tier K% with elite run prevention this season (2.40 ERA; ~2.6 FIP range). Fenway’s park shape inflates doubles via the Green Monster but is closer to neutral for HR; Crochet’s whiff rate and command mitigate extra-base risk if ahead in counts. Cecconi (CLE) profiles league-average by run prevention (4.41 ERA; FIP around 4.9 range per previews) with a slider as the carrying pitch; damage control hinges on limiting pulled air contact to LF. Expect both sides to manage third-time-through and leverage rested high-leverage arms late.
Source: ESPN match hub & probables; MLB.com Stories preview notes; Baseball Savant Park Factors
Key Facts
- Start time: Tue, Sep 2 • 6:45 PM ET at Fenway Park (Game 2 of series; BOS leads 1–0).
- Probable pitchers: CLE Slade Cecconi vs BOS Garrett Crochet.
- Weather: Clear, ~71→64°F, 0% precip, light ESE→SSE winds.
- Market context: ESPN line lists BOS around −255 (O/U 7.5).
Source: ESPN Game Hub (time/odds/series); Swish Weather; RotoWire Weather
Player to Watch
Boston Red Sox — Garrett Crochet (LHP)
Cy-Young-level indicators (IP, K%, FIP≈2.6) with swing-and-miss secondaries. If first-pitch strike and HR/FB hold, he tilts the run distribution sharply.
Source: StatMuse season line; FanGraphs page
Cleveland Guardians — José Ramírez (3B)
Switch-hitter with pull power and baserunning value; if he squares Crochet’s four-seam/slider mix, Cleveland’s upset path opens.
Source: ESPN leaders (game hub)
Head-to-Head & Form Context
Head-to-Head
| Series status | Red Sox lead 1–0 (won 6–4 on Sep 1). |
|---|---|
| Venue | Fenway Park — unique 2B-friendly profile. |
Source: ESPN Recap (Sep 1); Baseball Savant Park Factors
Form & Momentum
| BOS last 5 | W vs CLE, W vs PIT, L vs PIT, L vs PIT, W @ BAL |
|---|---|
| CLE last 5 | L @ BOS, L vs SEA, W vs SEA, W vs SEA, W vs TB (F/10) |
Source: ESPN Last-5 (game hub)
Statistics & Simulations
| Probable pitchers | BOS Garrett Crochet — ERA 2.40, FIP ≈2.63 vs CLE Slade Cecconi — ERA 4.41, FIP ≈4.9. |
|---|---|
| Bullpen snapshot | Monitor day-of leverage availability; late-inning edge modest to BOS if fully rested. |
| Park factor | Fenway boosts 2B/extra-base hits; closer to neutral for HR vs league average. |
| Win probability | Boston Red Sox 69% — Cleveland Guardians 31% |
|---|---|
| Total runs (proj) | 7.6–7.9 (market O/U 7.5) |
| Likely scorelines | 4–3 BOS, 5–3 BOS, 4–2 BOS |
Source: ESPN odds/metrics; StatMuse (Crochet 2025); Covering the Corner (Cecconi/Crochet FIP notes); Baseball Savant (park)
Final Assessment
Model-calibrated probabilities (sum ≈ 100%):
- Home win: 69%
- Draw/Tie (if applicable): 0%
- Away win: 31%
Key drivers: Crochet K/BB & FIP edge; Fenway extra-base profile; clear weather (no run suppression); BOS recent momentum; Guardians’ road form.
Sensitivity (Top-5 Drivers)
| Driver | Δ Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Crochet HR/FB allowed | Δ ±5% | HR suppression keeps BOS near 70%; spike pushes BOS sub-65%. |
| Cecconi slider command | Δ ±3–4% | Early strikes/weak contact narrows gap; misses elevate BOS EV. |
| High-leverage bullpen availability | Δ ±3% | Back-to-backs swing late-inning win prob either way. |
| BABIP vs Green Monster | Δ ±2% | LF caroms can flip singles→doubles; fielding routes matter. |
| Weather (temp/wind) | Δ ±2% | Cooler temps/into-wind nudge total under and stabilize BOS edge. |
Source: Baseball Savant (park context)
FAQ
What time is the game?
Scheduled for Tue, Sep 2, 2025 • 6:45 PM ET.
Will official lineups be added?
Yes — replace “Predicted” with “Official” about 60 minutes before first pitch once clubs post.
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