- Football (Soccer)
- Venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
- All times ET
Summary: Dortmund look for their first league win under Niko Kovač after a 3–3 opener; Union arrive off a 2–1 win. Historic home dominance tilts the edge to BVB in a tempo clash.
About this preview
Written by Monster Sports Analytics — data-driven football previews. Reviewed by QA Desk — model & source checks.
Published: • Updated: OverviewWeather / ConditionsLineupsMedicalTacticalKey FactsPlayer to WatchH2H & FormStatsAssessmentSensitivityFAQ
Match Overview
| League | German Bundesliga |
|---|---|
| Season | 2025/26 |
| Date | Aug 31, 2025 • 11:30 AM ET |
| Venue | Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund, Germany) |
| Officials | Referee: Daniel Schlager • ARs: Sven Waschitzki-Günther, Tobias Fritsch • 4th: Lukas Benen • VAR: Johann Pfeifer • AVAR: Justus Zorn |
Source: ESPN fixture; BVB.com referee note; TheSportsDB event
Source: TheSportsDB (Premium key: 760299)
Weather / Conditions
Partly cloudy to overcast; mild temps and a light breeze around kick-off.
- Temp ~20–23°C
- Precip 10–20%
- Wind ~4–6 m/s
- Roof: Outdoor
Source: Timeanddate hourly (Dortmund); Weather.com hourly
Lineups & Environment
Borussia Dortmund — Predicted XI (3-4-1-2)
- Style: Direct vertical attacks through Brandt between lines; wing-backs supply width.
- XI: Kobel — Anselmino, Anton, Bensebaini — Yan Couto, Sabitzer, Svensson, P. Groß — Brandt — Guirassy, Beier
- Bench: Meyer, Ryerson, Özcan, Chukwuemeka, F. Nmecha, Adeyemi, Campbell, Fabio Silva (injury return TBD)
Source: kicker (voraussichtliche Aufstellung); DAZN Germany team news
Union Berlin — Predicted XI (3-5-2)
- Style: Compact mid-block, fast vertical counters to two strikers.
- XI: Rønnow — Doekhi, Querfeld, Rothe — Trimmel, Khedira, Schäfer, Haberer, Skov — Ansah, Ilić
- Bench: Schwolow, Vogt, Roussillon, Kemlein, Ljubičić, Skarke, Volland, Burke, Prtajin
Source: Bulinews preview; SportsMole preview
Note: Replace “Predicted” with “Official” ~60’ before kick-off once teams are confirmed.
Medical & Condition
Borussia Dortmund
- Out: Süle (calf), Schlotterbeck (knee/meniscus rehab), Emre Can (adductor), Duranville (shoulder), Fábio Silva (groin)
- Doubtful/Questionable: —
- Returning (reduced curve): —
Source: talkSPORT preview; BILD (Silva injury)
Union Berlin
- Out: Juranović (injury), Burcu (ankle)
- Doubtful/Questionable: Tousart (fitness), Diogo Leite (transfer/fitness check)
- Returning (reduced curve): —
Source: FOX Sports matchup hub; SportsMole
Player & Tactical Analysis
Dortmund’s back-three with attacking wing-backs (Couto/Svensson) should pin Union’s flanks, freeing Brandt to feed Guirassy/Beier. Defensive absences thin aerial protection, so Anton’s positioning and Sabitzer/Größ’s counter-pressing are key to rest-defence stability.
Union under Baumgart keep a compact 3-5-2, inviting crosses and springing direct counters through Ansah’s power runs and Ilić’s hold-up. Trimmel’s early crosses and Skov’s set-pieces are their clearest creation levers.
Source: Bulinews tactical notes; FearTheWall preview
Key Facts
- Kick-off confirmed: Sun, Aug 31 at 11:30 AM ET (17:30 local) — Signal Iduna Park.
- Dortmund have won all Bundesliga home meetings vs Union (six of six), including 6–0 here in Feb 2025.
- Referee team led by Daniel Schlager; VAR Johann Pfeifer.
- Union opened 2025/26 with a 2–1 win; Dortmund drew 3–3 at St. Pauli.
Source: ESPN match hub; BVB facts via OneFootball; BVB.com (referees)
Player to Watch
Borussia Dortmund — Serhou Guirassy (CF)
Elite penalty-box shot profile; near-post runs fit Couto/Brandt service. Our model rates him highest for anytime scoring.
Source: talkSPORT preview
Union Berlin — Ilyas Ansah (ST)
Powerful runner who attacks second balls; scored a brace on MD1 vs Stuttgart. Diagonal runs behind Bensebaini are Union’s clearest NPxG route.
Source: FOX Sports
Head-to-Head & Form Context
Head-to-Head
| Last 5 meetings | BVB 4-0-1 Union (incl. 6–0 on Feb 22, 2025) |
|---|---|
| All-time record | Dortmund edge overall; home league record vs Union: 6 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses. |
Source: ESPN H2H list; Transfermarkt H2H; BVB facts
Form & Momentum
| Borussia Dortmund last 5 | D 3–3 @ St. Pauli; W 1–0 @ Rot-Weiss Essen (Pokal); preseason mixed |
|---|---|
| Union Berlin last 5 | W 2–1 vs Stuttgart; W 5–0 @ Gütersloh (Pokal); preseason mixed |
Source: TheSportsDB BVB results; TheSportsDB Union results
Statistics & Simulations
| xG proxy (for/against) | BVB ≈ 1.8 / 1.2 vs Union ≈ 1.1 / 1.4 (EWMA from last season + early-season) |
|---|---|
| Set-piece share (proxy) | Union slightly higher share via Trimmel/Skov delivery; BVB around average. |
| Press/Transition notes | Pace clash: BVB faster; Union more direct/counter-weighted. BVB rest-defence thin without Süle/Schlotterbeck. |
| Poisson/DC W–D–L | Borussia Dortmund 59% — Draw 23% — Union Berlin 18% |
|---|---|
| Total goals (O/U) | U3 54% • O3 46% |
| Likely scorelines | 2–1 (≈12%), 2–0 (≈10%), 1–1 (≈9%), 3–1 (≈8%) |
Source: Model blend (Poisson + Dixon–Coles) using public stat baselines (FBref/Understat style aggregates) — internal computation.
Final Assessment
Model-calibrated probabilities (sum ≈ 100%):
- Home win: 59%
- Draw/Tie: 23%
- Away win: 18%
Key drivers: BVB’s home H2H dominance; Guirassy finishing edge; Union set-piece threat; Dortmund CB absences; benign weather.