Win Rate
Bayer Leverkusen 66.8%
Draw
19.1%
Hoffenheim
14.1%
Most common scoreline 2–1 · O2.5 63.5% / U2.5 36.5%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: Bundesliga 2025/26, Matchday 1
- Date & Time: Sat, Aug 23, 2025 · 9:30 AM ET
- Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen
- Broadcast (US): ESPN+ (EN/ES)
- Referee/VAR: Daniel Siebert (expected) / VAR TBA
- Weather (Kick-off): Cloudy, chance of showers ~65°F/18°C, light winds
Sources: Official Fixtures (Bundesliga.com) · Broadcast (ESPN+) · Referee Appointments (DFB) · Venue
2) Lineups & Setup
Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-2-1)
Probables: Flekken; Tapsoba, Hincapié, (CB3 TBA); Frimpong, Andrich, (CM2 TBA), Grimaldo; (AM1 TBA), (AM2 TBA); Schick.
Shape continuity under new staff with wing-back thrust (Frimpong/Grimaldo) and Schick focal point. Final XI confirmed ~60′ pre-KO.
Hoffenheim (3-4-2-1)
Probables: Baumann; Brooks, Vogt, (CB3 TBA); (RWB cover for Gendrey), Prömel, Geiger, Akpoguma; Kramarić, Beier; Weghorst.
Right side retooled after Gendrey’s long-term injury; expect compact mid-block and direct outlets to Kramarić/Beier.
Sources: WhoScored (Predicted XIs) · FotMob Match Hub
3) Medical & Condition
- Bayer Leverkusen: Jonas Hofmann (hamstring), Exequiel Palacios (hamstring) flagged around opener; Malik Tillman (strain) doubtful; Nordi Mukiele & Alejo Sarco (muscle) reported out “weeks.”
- Hoffenheim: Valentin Gendrey (syndesmosis/ankle) long-term; Ozan Kabak (ACL) long-term; Adam Hložek (hand fracture surgery) out; Diadie Samassékou (tendon) long-term.
Sources: Bayer04 Official Update · Bulinews (Mukiele/Sarco) · Bulinews (Gendrey) · Yahoo (Hložek) · GFNG (Samassékou)
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Bayer Leverkusen: Reported incoming CB Loïc Badé (medical agreed) to bolster depth; recent outgoings include Adli confirmation.
- Hoffenheim: Vladimir Coufal signed to cover RB after Gendrey injury.
Sources: Bulinews (Badé) · Bulinews (Adli) · beIN Sports (Coufal)
5) Public Opinion & Context
- H2H: Leverkusen won the last five league meetings (3–1, 4–1, 2–1, 3–2, 3–1).
- Markets lean Leverkusen (≈ -198 / +461, O/U 3.5 around +118 over).
Sources: ESPN H2H & Match Hub · FOX Sports Odds/Preview
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Poisson + Dixon–Coles (correlation), ClubElo priors, last-10 EWMA, opponent strength, availability, weather/referee adj. 100k sims + isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Leverkusen 2.05 · Hoffenheim 0.95
- Win/Draw/Loss: 66.8% / 19.1% / 14.1% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 2–1 (Alternatives: 2–0, 3–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 63.5% · Under 36.5%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Leverkusen creative absences (Hofmann/Palacios): Δ Home win −4% to −6%.
- Right-side patch for Hoffenheim (Coufal/RWB rotation): Δ BTTS ±5% via crossing volume.
- Showers & softer pitch: Δ Under 2.5 +4%; pace clash dampened.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 84 · Confidence 72
Sources: ClubElo — Leverkusen · ClubElo — Hoffenheim · Dixon–Coles (explainer)
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Leverkusen’s wing-back thrust and set-piece edge should tell against a reshuffled Hoffenheim right side. If creativity (Hofmann/Palacios) is limited, expect a slightly more methodical build but home control remains the base case.
- Result: Leverkusen win (lean).
- Score: 2–1 (±1 goal range).
- O/U: Lean Over 2.5 (63.5%).
Sources: Odds snapshot · Broadcast listing
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.