Win Rate
Atlético Madrid 72%
Draw
18%
Elche
10%
Most common scoreline 2–0 · O2.5 55% / U2.5 45%
1) Match Overview Official listings
- Competition/Round: Spanish La Liga 2025–26, Matchday 2
- Date & Time (ET): Sat, Aug 23, 2025 · 1:30 PM ET (19:30 CEST / 17:30 UTC)
- Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
- Broadcast (intl): See LaLiga “Where to Watch” by region (US: ESPN+/ESPN Deportes — check local listings)
- Referee/VAR: TBD (not posted at time of writing)
- Weather (Kick-off): TBD (matchday forecast)
Sources: TheSportsDB event (17:30 UTC) · Atlético official preview (19:30 CEST) · Metropolitano naming (“Riyadh Air Metropolitano”) · LaLiga club hub / where-to-watch
2) Lineups & Setup
Atlético Madrid (4-2-3-1 expected)
Oblak; Llorente, Le Normand, Hancko, Ruggeri; Cardoso, Barrios; Giuliano Simeone, Almada, Álvarez; Sørloth.
Notes: Álex Baena out (adductor); José María Giménez still recovering — both miss out per team news.
Elche (3-4-2-1 / 3-4-1-2 expected)
Dituro; Affengruber, Bigas, Núñez; Gaspar, Guti, Febas, Salinas; Mendoza; Álvaro Rodríguez, Germán Valera.
Notes: Yago Santiago (ACL) and Adam Boayar (muscle) out; Josan doubtful.
Sources: Into the Calderón predicted XI · Yahoo/Syndicated preview (kick-off 18:30 CEST)
3) Medical & Condition
- Atlético Madrid: Álex Baena (muscle) out until after the international break; José María Giménez (muscle) continuing rehab.
- Elche: Yago Santiago (ACL) out; Adam Boayar (muscle) out; Josan (hamstring) doubtful.
Sources: AS — Baena & Giménez status · WhoScored preview — Elche injuries · BeSoccer injuries (Elche) · RotoWire — Giménez
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Atlético: Summer refresh under Simeone; home opener after MD1 loss — response motive + unveilings at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
- Elche: Back in La Liga under Eder Sarabia; squad depth tested early with wide/wing-back absences.
Sources: Into the Calderón (summer context) · Wikipedia — Elche promoted for 25/26
5) Public Opinion & Context
- H2H snapshot: Last 5 competitive meetings show Atlético 3W–1L–1D, including a 4–0 Atleti win in Jan 2025 (CdR) and a 2–0 Atleti league home win in Dec 2022.
Sources: ESPN match page & H2H
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Dixon–Coles-adjusted Poisson with home/away strength, last-10 weighting, opponent quality, and personnel availability. 100k sims with isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Atlético 1.90 · Elche 0.70
- Win/Draw/Loss: 72% / 18% / 10% (sums 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 2–0 (Alternatives: 2–1, 1–0)
- O/U 2.5: Over 55% · Under 45%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ−3–4% Atlético win if Giménez absence forces conservative line (aerial/set-piece defending).
- Δ+3% Atlético win if Elche without Josan (chance creation down right channel).
- Δ+2–3% goals if Atleti score first ≤25’ (game-state acceleration at home).
Quality Metrics — Coverage 88% · Confidence 70% (stable drivers: home edge, promoted opponent, injury table).
Sources: Dixon–Coles method (paper/PDF)
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Newly-promoted Elche arrive organized under Sarabia, but Atleti’s home tilt and front-four shot quality should tell, even without Baena and Giménez. Expect territorial control, with transitions & set-pieces the visitors’ best routes.
- Result: Lean Atlético Madrid win (FT)
- Score: 2–0 (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Slight lean Over 2.5 (55%) — late game-state adds tail risk.
Sources: AS TV/time listing · FOX Sports match hub
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.