Win Rate
Athletic 52%
Draw
27%
Rayo
21%
Most common scoreline 2–1 · O2.5 53% / U2.5 47%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: LaLiga 2025–26, Matchweek 2
- Date & Time (ET): Mon, Aug 25, 2025 · 1:30 PM ET (17:30 UTC / 19:30 CEST)
- Venue: San Mamés, Bilbao
- Broadcast (US): ESPN+ / ESPN Deportes (US listings)
- Referee/VAR: TBD at time of writing
- Weather (Kick-off): TBD
Sources: Athletic Club — official call-up & KO 19:30 CEST · Athletic — ticket page (match listing) · US TV/stream: ESPN+ 1:30 PM ET · Mundo Deportivo — 19:30 CEST · FotMob — 17:30 UTC.
2) Lineups & Setup
Athletic (4-2-3-1 expected)
Unai Simón; Lekue, Vivian, Paredes, Yuri; Galarreta, Jauregizar; Iñaki Williams, Sancet, Nico Williams; Guruzeta.
Rayo Vallecano (4-2-3-1 expected)
Batalla; Rațiu, Lejeune, Luiz Felipe, Pep Chavarría; Pathé Ciss, Unai López; Isi Palazón, Pedro Díaz, Álvaro García; De Frutos.
Notes: Sancet/Prados/Unai Gómez rejoined full training before KO, boosting the #10/CM options; Galarreta tracked as returning to availability. For Rayo, Abdul Mumin remains out (knee) per week-of reports.
Sources: Sports Mole — preview & XIs · WhoScored — predicted lineups · SportsGambler — XIs & roles · AS — Sancet/Prados/Unai Gómez back.
3) Medical & Condition
- Athletic: Sancet/Prados/Unai Gómez back in training; Galarreta tracking toward availability; long-term: Unai Egiluz.
- Rayo: Abdul Mumin still out (knee). Other routine knocks monitored.
Sources: AS — returns to training · Yahoo/Agencia — Mumin out note.
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Athletic: Core continuity under Valverde; wide-overload via Nico & Iñaki; Sancet fitness increases central creativity.
- Rayo: Iñigo Pérez keeps the Iraola-era vertical transitions; De Frutos offers direct depth opposite Álvaro.
Source: OneFootball — preview context.
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Kick-off verified: 19:30 CEST local → 1:30 PM ET.
- H2H snapshot: Athletic unbeaten in the last three league meetings (W3); San Mamés advantage well-documented.
- Market tone: Home-lean with BTTS risk; many previews pricing Athletic ~1.7.
Sources: Athletic — KO · Football Whispers — pricing snapshot.
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Dixon–Coles–adjusted Poisson with EWMA recent form, home/away splits, opponent strength and availability. 100k sims; isotonic calibration; market de-vig as a sanity check.
- Expected Goals λ: Athletic 1.62 · Rayo 1.05
- Win/Draw/Loss: 52% / 27% / 21% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 2–1 (Alternatives: 1–1, 2–0)
- O/U 2.5: Over 53% · Under 47%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ+4% O2.5 if early goal ≤25′ (game state opens; BTTS ↑).
- Δ−3% Athletic win if Sancet limited (progression through half-spaces ↓).
- Δ−2% Athletic win if Rayo counters successfully via Isi/Álvaro channels.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 86% · Confidence 66% (KO/venue/broadcast verified; multi-source XIs; injuries cross-checked).
Method: Dixon–Coles (1997).
7) Final Verdict
Summary: San Mamés tilt plus wide superiority (Nico/Iñaki) give Athletic a clear edge, but Rayo’s quick strikes through Isi & Álvaro make BTTS live.
- Result: Athletic win (draw cover reasonable)
- Score: 2–1 baseline (±1 goal)
- O/U: Slight lean Over 2.5 (53%).
Sources: US TV/stream · Fixture hub.
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.