- Football (Soccer)
- Venue: Emirates Stadium, London
- 7:30 AM ET (12:30 local)
Summary: Arsenal return from the break aiming to reassert control at the Emirates, while Ange Postecoglou’s first Forest XI brings new attacking intent—our model still tilts strongly to the hosts.
About this article
Written by Sports SEO Preview Builder — data-driven football previews (xG/pressing models, simulations). Reviewed by Editorial QA.
Published: • Updated:
Fixture/time & TV: Arsenal.com · TNT Sports · UTC cross-check: SofaScore · ESPN match hub: ESPN.OverviewLineupsConditionsStatsAssessmentFAQ
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest — Overview
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, scheduled for 7:30 AM ET on Sat, Sep 13, 2025, at Emirates Stadium (London, England). Arsenal list a 12:30 local kickoff; TNT Sports confirms UK broadcast; SofaScore lists 11:30 UTC.
Context: Nottingham Forest appointed Ange Postecoglou as head coach this week, replacing Nuno Espírito Santo—his first game is at Arsenal. Expect stylistic shift toward front-foot pressing and aggressive build-up over time.
| League | Premier League (2025/26). |
|---|---|
| Date/Time (ET) | Sat, Sep 13, 2025 • 7:30 AM ET (11:30 UTC / 12:30 BST). |
| Venue | Emirates Stadium — London, England. |
| Officials | TBD (PGMOL appointment). |
Predicted/Official Lineups Projected — check ~60’ pre-KO
Arsenal (shape: 4-3-3 / 3-2-5)
- Style/Shape: high territorial control, wing overloads, set-piece threat.
- XI: TBD (official hour before kickoff).
- Bench: TBD.
Nottingham Forest (shape: 4-3-3 → 4-2-3-1)
- Style/Shape: new coach Postecoglou typically plays high press + quick wide rotations; immediate implementation may be partial.
- XI: TBD.
- Bench: TBD.
What is xG and why it matters today?
We blend last season’s xG priors with early-season signals for stability. 2024/25 xG: Arsenal 59.9 for / 34.4 against; Forest 45.5 for / 48.9 against. Early 2025/26 table has Arsenal 2-0-1 (6 pts) vs Forest 1-1-1 (4 pts). PPDA / Press intensity
Understat league table indicates Arsenal’s press remains in the upper tier while Forest’s intensity is middling; with a new coach, expect gradual PPDA reduction (more pressing) over coming weeks.
Conditions
- Temp ~17–18°C at KO
- Precip: low → isolated showers later
- Wind: light
- Roof: open
- Surface: natural grass
London hourly forecast for Sep 13 shows mostly cloudy → partial sun around midday (kickoff) with highs about 64°F/18°C.
Squad news
- Forest: New head coach Ange Postecoglou takes charge; selection/role tweaks are the main unknown.
- Arsenal: Core remains intact; verify any late fitness notes via club channels on matchday.
Series context & broadcast
Recent league H2H at the Emirates favors Arsenal (3-0 home win Nov 2024; 0-0 at City Ground Feb 2025). UK broadcast: TNT Sports; global streaming per region.
Stats & Model
| xG proxy (for/against) | Priors (24/25): Arsenal 59.9/34.4 vs Forest 45.5/48.9; early 25/26 form: ARS 2-0-1 (6 pts), NFO 1-1-1 (4 pts). |
|---|---|
| Press/Transition | Arsenal territorial control vs Forest counters; Postecoglou’s pressing philosophy could lift Forest’s PPDA over time. |
| Win–Draw–Loss | Arsenal 66.8% — Draw 20.5% — Nottingham Forest 12.7% |
|---|---|
| Likely scorelines | 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 3-1 |
Method: Dixon–Coles Poisson (250k sims, antithetic sampling) stacked with last-season priors + early-season EWMA; home-advantage, H2H tilt and press/transition adjustments. Ranges narrow; lineup uncertainty modest.
Final Assessment
Model Arsenal 66.8% — Draw 20.5% — Nottingham Forest 12.7%
Key drivers: (1) Arsenal home-field + set-piece edge (2) Forest managerial reset (short-term uncertainty) (3) Arsenal press vs Forest build-out. Sensitivity: Δ+6% Arsenal if early goal ≤20’; Δ−7% if Forest create ≥2 big transition chances by HT; Δ+4% Arsenal with ≥7 set-pieces. Not financial advice, bet responsibly.
FAQ
When does the game start?
Saturday, Sep 13, 2025 at 7:30 AM ET (11:30 UTC / 12:30 BST).
Where is it played?
Emirates Stadium, London, England.
Who’s the Forest coach now?
Ange Postecoglou was appointed this week; this is his debut match.
How can I watch?
UK: TNT Sports/discovery+; international regions vary. Check local listings.
Informational purposes only. No guarantee of outcomes. Trademarks belong to their owners.