Win Rate
Angers 31.8%
Draw
28.7%
Paris FC
39.5%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 46.8% / U2.5 53.2%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: Ligue 1 2025/26, Matchday 1
- Date & Time: Sun 17 Aug 2025 · 17:15 CEST (15:15 UTC)
- Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers
- Broadcast: France — Ligue 1+ / DAZN; USA — beIN SPORTS (regional restrictions)
- Referee/VAR: François Letexier / VAR: Alexandre Castro (AVAR: Stéphane Bré)
- Weather (Kick-off): Hot, ~32 °C, light wind; heat advisory in Maine-et-Loire — hydration breaks possible
Sources: Official Fixtures (TheSportsDB) · FR Broadcast (FootMercato) · US Broadcast (AP/Dataskrive) · Referee Appointments (Angers SCO) · Weather (Météo-France)
2) Lineups & Setup
Angers (likely 5-4-1 / 3-4-2-1)
Hervé Koffi; Raolisoa, Camara, Lefort, Hanin, Arcus; Belkebla, Mouton; Abdelli, Chérif; Lepaul.
Minimal injury concerns reported MD1; academy depth on bench.
Paris FC (4-2-3-1)
Nkambadio; Sangui, Chergui, Mbow, Kolodziejczak; Marchetti, M. López; Gory, Kebbal, Moses Simon; Krasso.
LB De Smet suspended; Otávio/Alakouch not ready per local reports → backline rotations likely.
Sources: Predicted XIs (Outlook India) · PFC Probables (90min) · Team News (WhoScored) · Suspensions (RueDesJoueurs)
3) Medical & Condition
- Angers: No major fresh injuries publicly reported for MD1; monitor match-day squad notes.
- Paris FC: De Smet suspended; no major injury flags widely reported; registration complete for core XI.
Sources: Angers Injury/Suspension Board · PFC Absences (reports)
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Angers: Survival last season (14th) and coach Alexandre Dujeux extended to 2026 → stability focus, incremental upgrades.
- Paris FC: Newly promoted after 46 years away; ownership ambition and Stade Jean-Bouin move underpin competitive push.
Sources: Angers 24/25 recap (FR WP) · Dujeux contract · LFP Preview: Paris FC · Promotion context
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Recent H2H (L2 2023/24): split — Angers 2–0 (home), Paris FC 3–1 (home).
- Market shows a narrow away lean (Paris FC slight favorite) and modest Under tilt.
Sources: H2H/Match page (ESPN) · Fixture & venue (SofaScore) · Odds overview (Oddschecker) · Odds snapshot (Oddspedia)
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Poisson + Dixon–Coles correlation; team Elo; last-season strength; promoted-team adjustment; lineup availability; referee/weather tweaks. 100k simulations with Platt/Isotonic calibration vs market.
- Expected Goals λ: Angers 1.10 · Paris FC 1.18
- Win/Draw/Loss: 31.8% / 28.7% / 39.5% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–1 (Alternatives: 0–1, 1–0)
- O/U 2.5: Over 46.8% · Under 53.2%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ Heat (wet-bulb +2 °C): pace −2.5% → Under +1.6pp, draw +0.7pp.
- Δ De Smet available (LB): Paris FC win +1.8pp; Angers λ −0.05.
- Δ Penalty rate +0.15/match (ref variance): Over +2.2pp; mode shifts to 1–2.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 0.91 · Confidence 0.72
Sources: Angers 24/25 GF/GA · Paris FC 24/25 GF/GA · Market calibration
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Paris FC’s promoted core (Krasso + wide pace with Simon/Gory) faces an Angers block that prefers low-tempo protection under Dujeux. In heat and with Letexier managing flow, we project a tight game where set-pieces and transition efficiency decide.
- Result: Slight away-lean (Paris FC favored), draw protection reasonable.
- Score: 1–1 (±1 goal range; 0–1 second-mode).
- O/U: Lean Under 2.5 (53.2%).
Sources: Team context (LFP) · Match hub (ESPN)
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model uses historical/public data and cannot guarantee outcomes. Please bet responsibly.