Win Rate
AC Milan 71%
Draw
18%
Cremonese
11%
Most common scoreline 2–0 · O2.5 54% / U2.5 46%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: Italian Serie A 2025–26, Matchday 1
- Date & Time (ET): Sat, Aug 23, 2025 · 2:45 PM ET (20:45 CEST / 18:45 UTC)
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro), Milan
- Broadcast (US): Paramount+ coverage (per ESPN match page)
- Referee/VAR: Giuseppe Collu; VAR: Daniele Doveri; ARs: Di Gioia, Mokhtar; 4th Official: Bonacina
- Weather (Kick-off): TBD (matchday forecast)
Sources: ESPN match page (2:45 PM ET, Paramount+) · AC Milan official preview (20:45 CEST, officials) · SempreMilan (time/officials)
2) Lineups & Setup
AC Milan (4-3-3 expected)
Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlović, Estupiñán; Loftus-Cheek, Modrić, Fofana; Saelemaekers, Giménez, Pulisic.
Notes: Reports indicate **Rafael Leão** will not be risked (calf) for MD1; **Chukwueze** a minor doubt from training.
Cremonese (3-5-2 expected)
Audero; Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti; Zerbin, Collocolo, Grassi, Vandeputte, Pezzella; Okereke, Bonazzoli.
Notes: Newly promoted; emphasis on compact 5-3/5-2 defensive phases and set-piece supply from wide.
Sources: Football Italia — probable XIs · OneFootball — probable XIs · Sky via SempreMilan — Leão out · SempreMilan — Chukwueze doubt
3) Medical & Condition
- AC Milan: Leão (calf) not expected to be risked; Chukwueze (minor knock) monitored.
- Cremonese: No major fresh injuries publicly confirmed pre-match; monitoring matchday squad list.
Sources: Leão status · Chukwueze status
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- AC Milan: New era under Allegri; **Luka Modrić** confirmed to join (August). Home opener momentum.
- Cremonese: Promoted via Serie B play-off; objective is early survival points.
Sources: Reuters — Modrić to Milan · ESPN — Cremonese promoted
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Kickoff confirmation: 20:45 CEST local (2:45 PM ET).
- Officials: Referee Giuseppe Collu; VAR Doveri (league appointment communicated via club/press).
Sources: AC Milan official · ESPN match center · AS time listing
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Dixon–Coles–adjusted Poisson with home/away strength, last-10 EWMA, opponent quality, and personnel availability. 100k sims with isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: AC Milan 1.95 · Cremonese 0.65
- Win/Draw/Loss: 71% / 18% / 11% (sums 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 2–0 (Alternatives: 2–1, 1–0)
- O/U 2.5: Over 54% · Under 46%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ−3–4% Milan win if **Leão** absence limits left-side thrust; chance quality shifts to set-plays.
- Δ+3% Milan win if **Modrić starts 60’+
- Δ+2–3% goals if **Cremonese concede first ≤25’
Quality Metrics — Coverage 88% · Confidence 70% (stable drivers: home edge, promoted opponent, ref/VAR confirmed).
Source (method): Dixon–Coles paper
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Cremonese return to Serie A under Davide Nicola and should be organized, but Milan’s talent density and set-piece edge at San Siro point to a controlled home win even with Leão managed. Expect territory and shot-quality advantage for the hosts.
- Result: AC Milan win (FT)
- Score: 2–0 (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Slight lean Over 2.5 (54%).
Sources: Kickoff & broadcast (ESPN) · Officials (AC Milan)
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.