San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds — MLB Regular Season Preview (Mon, Sep 8, 2025)
- Baseball (MLB)
- Venue: Petco Park, San Diego
- 9:40 PM ET
Summary: San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds preview — Lodolo vs Darvish at Petco Park with ET time, broadcast info and a calibrated win/total projection.
OverviewLineupsConditionsStatsAssessmentFAQ
About this article
Written by Sports Analytics Desk — MLB modeling & editorial. Reviewed by Editorial Review.
Published: • Updated:
Sources: ESPN Preview (probables, stats) · MLB.com Padres (schedule/TV) OverviewLineupsConditionsStatsAssessmentFAQ
San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds preview — Overview
San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds preview. San Diego hosts Cincinnati in the MLB Regular Season, scheduled for 9:40 PM ET on Mon, Sep 8, 2025 at Petco Park (San Diego, USA). Probable pitchers: Yu Darvish (SD) vs Nick Lodolo (CIN). Source.
The series opens with a lefty–righty contrast: Lodolo’s strike-throwing and K ability against a Padres lineup that leans right-handed, while Darvish counters with a deep mix at home in a run-suppressing park that can still reward pulled fly balls. Statcast Park Factors · Context.
Broadcast: Padres.TV (San Diego) / FanDuel Sports Network Ohio (Reds). Check local listings; MLB Network out-of-market applies on select dates this series. Padres info · Reds TV.
| League | MLB Regular Season |
|---|---|
| Date | Mon, Sep 8, 2025 • 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Petco Park (San Diego, USA) |
| Officials | TBD (announced near first pitch) |
San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds — Starters & Lineups Projected
| Probable pitchers | Yu Darvish (SD) — ERA 5.75, FIP n/a vs Nick Lodolo (CIN) — ERA 3.33, FIP n/a. ESPN |
|---|---|
| Bullpen snapshot | Padres: elite unit overall but recently reshuffling after Jason Adam’s season-ending quad injury; Robert Suárez closes. Reds: standard roles; neutral recent form. NY Post · FanGraphs (recent bullpen form) |
| HOME batting order | Fernando Tatis Jr. RF, Luis Arraez 1B, Manny Machado 3B, Ryan O’Hearn DH, Ramón Laureano LF, Jackson Merrill CF, Jake Cronenworth 2B, José Iglesias SS, Elias Díaz C. RotoWire default · Lineups.com |
| AWAY batting order | TJ Friedl CF, Noelvi Marte RF, Elly De La Cruz SS, Austin Hays DH, Gavin Lux LF, Spencer Steer 1B, Tyler Stephenson C, Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B, Matt McLain 2B. RotoWire default |
FIP vs ERA — quick refresher
FIP isolates pitcher results on K, BB, HBP, HR — less defense/noise — and stabilizes faster than ERA, especially in small samples. Park Factor & Barrel%
Petco is run-suppressing overall, but HR carry on pulled flies has tested high; quality contact (barrels) still matters. Context via Statcast park factors and local analysis.
Conditions
- Temp 24–28°C
- Precip TBD
- Wind TBD
- Roof: Outdoor
- Surface/Park: Natural grass; marine layer evenings
Forecast reference: San Diego daily outlook around first-pitch window.
San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds — Stats & Model
| Pitching form | Lodolo enters with a strong season line and K% edge; Darvish’s run prevention lags but home/park helps limit damage on non-barrel contact. |
|---|---|
| Bullpen trend | Padres’ unit remains high-quality but recently dipped (last-14-day table shows mid-pack metrics among contenders) while adjusting roles post-Adam. Reds pen closer to league-average lately. (See sources.) |
| Park factor | Petco: below-avg run scoring; HR on pulled flies plays up vs league average; overall totals skew lower here. (Statcast/FantasyPros). |
| Win probability | San Diego Padres 53% — Cincinnati Reds 47% |
|---|---|
| Total runs (proj) | 7.2 (lean Under 7.5 in median scenario) |
| Likely scorelines | SD 4–3 (19%), SD 5–3 (14%), CIN 3–2 (13%). |
Final Assessment
Model San Diego Padres 53% vs Cincinnati Reds 47%
Key drivers: Lodolo’s K/BB edge vs righty-heavy SD, Petco run suppression, Padres bullpen quality but role churn (Adam out), home field & travel, Reds team speed/pressure (De La Cruz/Friedl).
- Δ+6–8% if Darvish HR suppression holds (<1 HR allowed)
- Δ−5–7% if Reds steal/pressure adds +0.3 runs
- Δ+4–6% if Padres pen high-leverage (7th–9th) posts 0 ER
- Δ−4–5% with late marine layer reduction (ball carries more than expected)
- Δ±3% if either lineup missing a top-3 bat at lock
FAQ
When does the game start?
It’s set for Mon, Sep 8, 2025 at 9:40 PM ET. Mark your calendar!
Where’s it being played?
The matchup goes down at Petco Park in San Diego, USA.
Do we get official lineups?
Yes — clubs post about an hour before first pitch. Until then we list projected lineups above.
How can I keep up live?
You can follow along on Padres.TV / FanDuel Sports Network Ohio or check real-time updates from MLB/ESPN.
Informational purposes only. No guarantee of outcomes. Trademarks belong to their owners. Not financial advice