Win Rate
Inter Milan 61%
Draw
23%
Torino
16%
Most common scoreline 2–0 · O2.5 56% / U2.5 44%
1) Match OverviewPDF Match: None/Link Provided
- Competition/Round: Serie A 2025/26, Matchday 1
- Date & Time: Mon, Aug 25, 2025 · 2:45 PM ET
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro), Milan
- Broadcast (US): Paramount+ (CBS Sports)
- Referee/VAR: TBD / TBD
- Weather (Kick-off): TBD (outdoor)
Sources: Inter.it — dates & times · ESPN fixtures (Paramount+) · WhoScored preview · FotMob listing
2) Lineups & Setup
Inter Milan (3-5-2, predicted)
Sommer; Pavard, de Vrij, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Asllani, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Lautaro Martínez, Thuram.
Notes: Hakan Çalhanoğlu suspended; Dimarco & Carlos Augusto cleared; Frattesi late fitness call.
Torino (4-2-3-1/4-3-3, predicted)
Milinković-Savić; Bellanova, Buongiorno*, Sazonov*, Vojvoda; Linetty, Ilič/Gineitis; Vlasić, Seck, Lazaro; Sanabria/Zapata.
(*CB availability impacted by injuries; see Medical)
Notes: Coach Marco Baroni weighing 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3 for San Siro.
Sources: Sports Mole preview · WhoScored · SempreInter (Baroni formation)
3) Medical & Condition
- Inter Milan: Çalhanoğlu (suspended); Dimarco, Carlos Augusto fit; Frattesi late test.
- Torino: Schuurs, Ismajli, Njie among absentees; several positions in flux pending fitness checks.
Sources: Yahoo — suspensions · Dimarco/Augusto/Frattesi · Torino injury list
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Inter Milan: Core retained; internal chatter about adding a defender post-opener; depth strong across wing-back/forward lines.
- Torino: Re-tooling under new coach Baroni; center-back room recovering from long-term injuries (Schuurs), shaping early-season selections.
Sources: Inter defensive addition talk · Torino context
5) Public Opinion & Context
- H2H tilt to Inter at San Siro; opener time confirmed 20:45 CEST (2:45 PM ET). Broadcast in US via Paramount+.
Sources: Inter.it (KO) · ESPN (Paramount+) · WhoScored H2H
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Poisson + Dixon–Coles adjustment, Elo (home/away), last-10 weighted (EWMA), opponent strength, lineup/injury, pace/shot-quality & ref/weather placeholders. 100k sims; isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Inter 1.85 · Torino 0.90
- Win/Draw/Loss: 61% / 23% / 16% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 2–0 (Alternatives: 2–1, 1–0)
- O/U 2.5: Over 56% · Under 44%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ Dimarco 90′ vs limited minutes → Inter xG ↑ ~0.12; crossing/set-piece threat widens.
- Çalhanoğlu out (Asllani in) → Inter build-up tempo/verticality slightly ↓; Torino PPDA relief modest.
- Torino CB availability (Schuurs/Ismajli) → if either returns, Inter scoring prob −2–3pp; if not, aerial/transition mismatch persists.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 86 · Confidence 72 · Calibration 97 · Risk 28
Sources: Team stats/H2H · Suspensions · Fitness (Inter) · Torino injuries/shape
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Inter’s wing-back width (Dimarco/Dumfries) against a reorganizing Torino back line, plus the Lautaro–Thuram synergy, tilts the opener toward the hosts. Çalhanoğlu’s suspension softens Inter’s control a touch, but Torino’s CB injuries and formation transition under Baroni are meaningful headwinds.
- Result: Inter win favored (win-draw lean acceptable)
- Score: 2–0 (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Lean Over 2.5 (56%) with volatility tied to early-goal scenarios
Sources: KO & venue · ESPN match pag
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.