Win Rate
Osasuna 37%
Draw
30%
Valencia
33%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 47% / U2.5 53%
1) Match Overview Official listings
- Competition/Round: LaLiga 2025–26, Matchweek 2
- Date & Time (ET): Sun, Aug 24, 2025 · 11:00 AM ET (15:00 UTC / 17:00 CEST)
- Venue: Estadio El Sadar (Pamplona)
- Broadcast (US): ESPN+ (simulcast on ESPN Deportes listing)
- Referee/VAR: TBD at time of writing
- Weather (Kick-off): TBD on matchday
Sources: Valencia CF — KO 17:00 CEST, El Sadar, DAZN (Spain) · SofaScore — 15:00 UTC listing · ESPN Watch — live listing (US) · ESPN Pressroom — LaLiga rights in USA · TheSportsDB — event (15:00 UTC).
2) Lineups & Setup
Osasuna (4-2-3-1 expected)
Sergio Herrera; Rosier, Boyomo, Catena, Juan Cruz; Torró, Moncayola; Rubén García, Aimar Oroz, Moi Gómez; Budimir.
Valencia (4-4-2 expected)
Agirrezabala; Foulquier, Cèsar Tarraga, Copete, Gayà; Luis Rioja, Javi Guerra, Pepelu, Diego López; Dani Raba, Hugo Duro.
Notes: New Osasuna boss Alessio Lisci is without suspended LB Abel Bretones; shapes between 4-2-3-1 and a back-3 were discussed locally. Valencia under Carlos Corberán keep the high-energy press and direct wide play.
Sources: SportsGambler — predicted XIs · TheStatsZone — shape/context · WhoScored — preview hub.
3) Medical & Condition
- Osasuna: Suspended — Abel Bretones (2-match ban confirmed). Injured — Iker Benito (foot) listed out.
- Valencia: Injured — Thierry Correia (knee/ACL), Alberto Marí (muscle). Others minor knocks monitored.
Sources: Diario AS — Bretones 2-match ban · BeSoccer — injuries/suspensions list (Benito, Marí) · SportsGambler — Valencia injury table.
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Osasuna: Stability in the Budimir-Oroz-Moi Gómez axis; wide roles flexible due to Bretones’ ban.
- Valencia: Corberán’s side lean on Pepelu/Javi Guerra control and Gayà overlaps; depth at RW via Diego López keeps transition threat live.
Sources: Valencia CF — match notes & quotes.
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Kick-off verified: 17:00 CEST local → 11:00 AM ET.
- H2H snapshot: Valencia historically ahead overall; El Sadar H2H roughly even per long-run splits.
- Market tone: Slight Osasuna home lean; many previews mention BTTS risk.
Sources: OneFootball — KO & venue · OneFootball — H2H context.
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Dixon–Coles–adjusted Poisson with EWMA recent form, home/away strength, opponent quality, lineup availability. 100k sims; isotonic calibration. Market de-vig used for sanity check.
- Expected Goals λ: Osasuna 1.18 · Valencia 1.08
- Win/Draw/Loss: 37% / 30% / 33% (sums 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–1 (Alternatives: 1–0, 1–2)
- O/U 2.5: Over 47% · Under 53%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ−3% Osasuna win if Gayà overlaps are uncontested (cross-volume ↑).
- Δ+3–4% goals if early goal ≤25’ (game state opens; BTTS probability rises).
- Δ−2% Valencia win if Pepelu is pressed effectively (first-phase buildup disrupted).
Quality Metrics — Coverage 86% · Confidence 64% (KO/venue/broadcast validated; team news multi-source).
Method: Dixon–Coles (1997).
7) Final Verdict
Summary: El Sadar is a tough away opener. Osasuna’s structure and Budimir’s hold-up give the hosts a slight edge, but Valencia’s transition (Diego López/Raba) makes the draw highly live.
- Result: Osasuna or Draw (lean draw)
- Score: 1–1 baseline (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Slight lean Under 2.5 (53%).
Sources: ESPN Watch — US stream · SofaScore — match hub.
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.