Win Rate
Crystal Palace 41%
Draw
30%
Nottingham Forest
29%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 47% / U2.5 53%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: English Premier League 2025–26, Matchweek 2
- Date & Time (ET): Sun, Aug 24, 2025 · 9:00 AM ET (14:00 BST)
- Venue: Selhurst Park, London
- Broadcast (US): 9:00 AM ET slot — listed via US outlets; check local providers/Peacock
- Referee/VAR: Anthony Taylor; VAR: Paul Tierney (assistants listed below)
- Weather (Kick-off): TBD (matchday)
Sources: Premier League — fixture 14:00 UK, Crystal Palace match centre (14:00 BST), ESPN match hub, Referee appointments (Taylor/Tierney).
2) Lineups & Setup
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1 expected)
Henderson; Richards, Lacroix, Guéhi; Muñoz, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell; Sarr, Devenny; Mateta.
Notes: Eze transfer complete away from Palace; Kamada near return but listed doubtful.
Nottingham Forest (4-2-3-1 expected)
Sels; Aina, Milenković, Murillo, N. Williams; Sangaré, Anderson; Ndoye, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood.
Sources: Sports Mole — preview & probable XIs · SportsGambler — predicted lineups · Yahoo — team news snapshot.
3) Medical & Condition
- Crystal Palace: Out — Cheick Doucouré (knee), Chadi Riad (knee), Eddie Nketiah (hamstring), Matheus França (muscle), Caleb Kporha (back). Doubt — Daichi Kamada (knee/knock).
- Nottingham Forest: Out — Nicolás Domínguez (knee). Doubts — James McAtee, Omari Hutchinson (fitness).
Sources: Premier League injury list (club pages) · Sports Mole — injuries · LondonWorld — round-up.
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Crystal Palace: Post-Eze landscape (creative load redistributed to Sarr/Mateta/Wharton).
- Nottingham Forest: Stable core (Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi, Murillo); away points valued early.
Sources: Guardian — Eze deal context.
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Kick-off confirmation: 14:00 BST / 9:00 AM ET; Palace matchgoers’ guide reiterates 14:00 local.
- Officials: Taylor (Ref), Beswick & Nunn (ARs), Barrott (4th), Tierney (VAR), Howard (AVAR).
- Sentiment: UK previews lean **BTTS** potential; markets fairly tight.
Sources: CPFC — matchgoers’ guide (14:00 BST) · Referee appointments detail · talkSPORT acca (BTTS angle).
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Dixon–Coles–adjusted Poisson (home/away strength, last-10 EWMA, opponent quality, lineup availability). 100k sims, isotonic calibration. Market de-vig used for sanity check.
- Expected Goals λ: Crystal Palace 1.32 · Nottingham Forest 1.18
- Win/Draw/Loss: 41% / 30% / 29% (sums 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–1 (Alternatives: 1–0, 0–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 47% · Under 53%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ−3–4% Palace win if Kamada does not feature (ball-progression deficit persists).
- Δ+3% goals if Forest score first ≤25’ (game-state expands; Gibbs-White/Hudson-Odoi in transition).
- Δ±2% around officiating — Taylor’s game flow tends to keep tempo; early cards can depress xG run-rate.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 86% · Confidence 66% (stable drivers: verified KO time/venue, match officials, multi-source injuries).
Method note: Dixon–Coles model.
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Tactical control looks balanced: Palace’s back-three build with wing-backs vs Forest’s 4-2-3-1 counters through MGW/Hudson-Odoi. With Eze gone and Kamada not fully ready, Palace’s shot quality depends on Sarr/Mateta runs and set-plays; Forest can trade territory for transitions. Model edges Palace but keeps draw highly live.
- Result: Lean Palace or Draw (conservative home-win/draw stance)
- Score: 1–1 baseline (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Lean Under 2.5 (53%).
Sources: ESPN match hub · PL fixtures (date/time)
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.