Win Rate
Lyon 65%

Draw
21%

Metz
14%

Most common scoreline 2–0 Lyon · O2.5 52% / U2.5 48%

1) Match Overview

  • Competition/Round: French Ligue 1 2025/26, Matchday 2
  • Date & Time: Sat, Aug 23, 2025 — 3:05 PM ET
  • Venue: Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu (Lyon)
  • Broadcast: France — Ligue 1+; USA — beIN SPORTS
  • Referee/VAR: Éric Wattellier (CR); VAR: Hamid Guenaoui & Ludovic Rémy
  • Weather (Kick-off): Mostly clear, ~68°F/20°C, light NW wind

2) Lineups & Setup

Lyon (4-2-3-1)
Descamps; Maitland-Niles, Mata, Niakhaté, Abner; Tessmann, Morton; Šulc, Tolisso, Fofana; Mikautadze.

Fonseca may rotate early season; width via Fofana and Šulc.

Metz (5-3-2)
Fischer; Sané, Gbamin, Kouao; Stambouli, Hein, Tsitaishvili; I. Gueye, Madjo.

Compact block, set-pieces crucial.

3) Medical & Condition

  • Lyon: Mangala, Nuamah long-term out; Tolisso minutes managed.
  • Metz: Sabaly (out), Deminguet (Q).

4) Transfer Market & Motivation

  • Lyon: Niakhaté, Šulc, Abner new in XI; Fonseca debut season.
  • Metz: Stabilizing squad post-promotion.

5) Public Opinion & Context

  • H2H last 5: Lyon 2W–2D–1L.
  • Market odds: ~Lyon 69% / Draw 18% / Metz 13%.

6) Stats & Simulation Results

Poisson + Dixon–Coles, 100k sims, calibrated.

  • xG λ: Lyon 1.74 · Metz 0.82
  • Probabilities: 65% / 21% / 14%
  • Mode Score: 2–0
  • O/U 2.5: Over 52% · Under 48%

Top sensitivities: Sabaly OUT (−2% Metz win), Tolisso ≥70′ (+2% Lyon win), Wattellier card rate → +3% U3.5.

7) Final Verdict

Lyon favored at home; Metz reliant on set-pieces. Expect OL control.

  • Result: Lyon win (lean win-draw safe)
  • Score: 2–0 (±1)
  • Totals: Slight Over 2.5 (52%)

※ Informational only. Not betting advice. Historical/public data only.