Win Rate
Real Betis 52%
Draw
27%
Deportivo Alavés
21%
Most common scoreline 1–0 (Betis) · O2.5 38% / U2.5 62%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: LaLiga 2025–26, Round 2
- Date & Time: Fri, Aug 22, 2025 — 3:30 PM ET (New York)
- Venue: Estadio de La Cartuja, Seville
- Broadcast (US): ESPN+
- Referee/VAR: TBD (RFEF publishes ~24h pre-KO) / TBD
- Weather (Kick-off): Clear ~29°C (85°F), light breeze (Seville 21:30 CEST)
Sources: ESPN match page & coverage · SofaScore fixture · FotMob fixture · RFEF designations hub · RFEF 25/26 referee pool
2) Lineups & Setup
Real Betis (likely 4-2-3-1)
TBD — Official XIs drop ~60’ pre-KO. Expect a conservative midfield shape given absences; wide progression via Ruibal/Riquelme.
Pellegrini has rotated heavily in pre-season; check final XI close to kickoff.
Deportivo Alavés (likely 4-2-3-1 / 4-4-2)
TBD — Coudet has used Blanco–Guridi as core; Vicente/Aleñá float between lines; Sivera started GW1.
Novoa’s status affects right-side thrust; Jonny Tenaglia/Garcés choices set defensive height.
Sources: Live lineups & benches · Predicted XIs (FotMob)
3) Medical & Condition
- Real Betis: Out — Isco (fractured fibula, multi-month) ; Marc Roca (ankle, early Sep ETA); Nelson Deossa (ankle, targeting post-break); Sergi Altimira (precaution, training load).
- Deportivo Alavés: Mostly healthy. Hugo Novoa (ankle) monitored; Sivera returned and started in GW1.
Sources: Reuters – Isco injury · AS – Deossa timeline · ABC Sevilla – Altimira · RotoWire – Sivera GW1 note · FotMob – Betis injuries · AS – Alavés notes
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Real Betis: Summer adds (e.g., Nelson Deossa) offset outgoings; midfield rebuild underway, which may compress early-season ceiling.
- Deportivo Alavés: Carles Aleñá among notable arrivals; active for a CB/LW/ST to round out squad. Depth looks steadier than last season.
Sources: Transfermarkt – Betis 25/26 · Transfermarkt – Alavés 25/26 · Cadena SER – Alavés targets · BeSoccer – Alavés moves
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Alavés are unbeaten in the last five vs Betis (2W, 3D) per FotMob insights; last meeting ended 3–1 to Alavés (Jan 2025).
Sources: FotMob – H2H insight · Oddschecker – market snapshot
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Method: Poisson + Dixon–Coles adjustment with time-decay, opponent strength, home/away splits, lineup availability; calibrated to consensus market baseline and recent form.
- Expected Goals λ: Real Betis 1.24 · Deportivo Alavés 0.91
- Win/Draw/Loss: 52% / 27% / 21% (sums 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–0 (Alts: 1–1, 2–0)
- O/U 2.5: Over 38% · Under 62%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Betis midfield availability (Isco/Roca/Deossa/Altimira): if any unexpected return → Betis win ↑ by ~+3–4 pct-pts; if further setback → Betis win ↓ ~−3 pct-pts.
- Wide progression vs Alavés low block: early Betis goal (≤30’) shifts O2.5 to ~45% (Δ≈+7 pct-pts) and trims draw by ~−5 pct-pts.
- Set-piece differential: Alavés +1 high-xG set piece chance raises their win to ~24% (Δ≈+3), especially if Tenaglia/Garcés dominate aerials.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 88/100 · Confidence 66/100 (early-season variance; referee TBA).
Sources: Dixon–Coles overview · Extended DC correlation
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Betis carry venue edge at La Cartuja and modest chance quality, but injuries blunt midfield control. Alavés’ structure under Coudet plus recent H2H resilience points to a tight game with long draw tails.
- Result: Lean Betis win / draw-protected view.
- Score: 1–0 (±1 goal range).
- O/U: Under 2.5 favored (62%).
Sources: Fixture baseline · Market consensus
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.