Win Rate
West Ham United 31%
Draw
25%
Chelsea
44%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 55% / U2.5 45%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: English Premier League 2025–26, Round 2
- Date & Time: Aug 22, 2025 — 3:00 PM ET
- Venue: London Stadium, London
- Broadcast: UK: Sky Sports · USA: USA Network
- Referee/VAR: Michael Oliver / Jarred Gillett
- Weather: Partly cloudy ~66°F (19°C), light NW breeze (4–6 mph), low rain risk
Sources: Fixtures · Broadcast · Referee · Weather
2) Lineups & Setup
West Ham United (4-2-3-1, projected)
Areola; Coufal, Kilman, Aguerd, Emerson; Ward-Prowse, Souček; Bowen, Paquetá, Kudus; Antonio.
Projection based on recent XI patterns & match guides; confirm ~60 minutes before kick-off.
Chelsea (4-2-3-1, projected)
Sánchez; James, Chalobah (Acheampong/Tosin?), Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernández; Palmer plus two of Bynoe-Gittens/Neto; CF likely Delap.
Chelsea’s CB picture depends on Adarabioyo’s fitness clearance; attacking band rotates around Palmer.
3) Medical & Condition
- West Ham United: No new issues reported post-Sunderland; Crysencio Summerville remains out (club previews).
- Chelsea: Levi Colwill (ACL) out; Tosin Adarabioyo back in training but doubtful; Romeo Lavia & Benoît Badiashile doubts; Mudryk suspended.
Sources: West Ham · Chelsea · Tosin update
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- West Ham United: No fresh registrations expected to start; stability prioritized after opening defeat.
- Chelsea: Defensive depth in flux pending Adarabioyo’s return; no major outgoing expected to affect XI this week.
Sources: West Ham · Chelsea news hub
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Last five EPL H2H: CHE W3–D1–L1 (incl. CHE 2–1 WHU on Feb 3, 2025; CHE 3–0 WHU on Sep 21, 2024; CHE 5–0 WHU on May 5, 2024; WHU 3–1 CHE on Aug 20, 2023).
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Poisson/DC with light correlation; Elo + xG priors (last season), rest/travel, and injury adjustments. 100k sims.
- xG λ: 1.30 (Home) · 1.59 (Away)
- Result Prob: 31% / 25% / 44% (WHU/Draw/CHE)
- Most Common: 1–1 (Alt: 1–2, 0–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 55% / Under 45%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- CB availability (CHE): Adarabioyo fit ↑CHE clean-sheet prob (Δ ≈ +3–4%); if out, WHU set-piece xG rises (Δ ≈ +0.08 λ_H).
- Palmer role: central #10 vs wide shifts CHE λ_A by ~±0.10 (chance creation concentration).
- Set pieces: Ward-Prowse deliveries vs CHE set-piece D — adds ~0.10 expected WHU goals in high-foul scenarios.
Coverage 87/100 · Confidence 63/100 (early-season data; lineup-dependent).
Sources: FBref WHU 24/25 xG · FBref CHE 24/25 xG
7) Final Verdict
Summary: West Ham United vs Chelsea — early-season London derby where Chelsea’s chance creation (Palmer-centric) faces West Ham’s set-piece threat. WHU improvement at home is likely, but Chelsea’s floor is higher if one senior CB is cleared to start.
- Result: Slight lean Chelsea (away) — 44% win, draw live at 25%.
- Score: Mode 1–1 (alt 1–2).
- O/U: O2.5 favored 55%.
※ Informational purposes only. Not financial advice, bet responsibly.