Win Rate
Leeds United 41.6%
Draw
28.3%
Everton
30.1%
Most common scoreline 1–1 · O2.5 47% / U2.5 53%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: English Premier League 2025/26, Matchweek 1
- Date & Time: Mon, 18 Aug 2025 · 20:00 BST (UTC+1)
- Venue: Elland Road
- Broadcast: UK — Sky Sports Main Event/Premier League · US — USA Network/NBC platforms (regional listings vary)
- Referee/VAR: Chris Kavanagh / John Brooks (AVAR: Simon Bennett)
- Weather (Kick-off): Partly cloudy, ~20–21°C, light breeze
Sources: Official Fixtures · Broadcast Info (UK) · Broadcast Info (US) · Referee Assignments · Weather
2) Lineups & Setup
Leeds United (4-3-3)
Lucas Perri; Jayden Bogle* (or Luke Byram), Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk, Gabriel Gudmundsson; Ethan Ampadu, Anton Stach, Ao Tanaka; Daniel James, Joel Piroe, Wilfried Gnonto
*Bogle hip issue — if not passed fit, Byram likely. Several expected debuts (Perri, Gudmundsson, Stach, Tanaka).
Everton (4-3-3)
Jordan Pickford; Nathan Patterson (or Jake O’Brien), James Tarkowski, Michael Keane, Vitaliy Mykolenko; Idrissa Gana Gueye, James Garner, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall; Jack Grealish, Beto, Iliman Ndiaye
Branthwaite (hamstring) out; Mykolenko monitored but trending available. Grealish could start or feature 30–60′.
Sources: Predicted XIs (1) · Predicted XIs (2) · Team News (3)
3) Medical & Condition
- Leeds United: Jaka Bijol suspended; Jayden Bogle (hip) doubt; Sebastiaan Bornauw (calf) doubt.
- Everton: Jarrad Branthwaite (hamstring) out; Vitaliy Mykolenko (groin) late fitness check but expected; others minor knocks monitored.
Sources: Leeds Medical/Status · Everton Status · Both Teams Round-up
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Leeds United: Summer rebuild under Farke with incoming profiles at GK/FB/CM (Perri, Gudmundsson, Stach, Tanaka) aiming to raise possession stability and set-piece size.
- Everton: High-profile loan of Jack Grealish; additions incl. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Thierno Barry increase on-ball control/width. Branthwaite injury delays ideal CB pairing.
Sources: Leeds incomings (match preview) · Moyes on Grealish (Times) · Everton summer context
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Market leans slightly to Leeds at home; draw respected; Everton live underdogs.
- Recent H2H: Everton unbeaten in previous 5 vs Leeds; Elland Road has seen tight games.
Sources: Odds snapshot (Covers) · Odds matrix (Oddspedia) · H2H/Context
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Poisson + Dixon–Coles correlation, team Elo (home/away splits), last-10 adj. for opponent strength, lineup availability (Branthwaite–/Bogle?), referee/tempo tilt, weather neutral. 100k antithetic sims + Isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Leeds 1.32 · Everton 1.15
- Win/Draw/Loss: 41.6% / 28.3% / 30.1% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1–1 (Alternatives: 1–0, 2–1)
- O/U 2.5: Over 47% · Under 53%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- CB availability — if Branthwaite were fit: ΔEverton xGA −0.08 ⇒ ΔLeeds win −2.0pp.
- Leeds RB fitness — if Bogle out (Byram in): ΔEverton xG +0.06 (right-side entries) ⇒ ΔDraw +0.9pp.
- Grealish ≥60′ at LW — carries, fouls drawn ↑: ΔOver 2.5 +3.2pp; ΔEverton win +1.2pp.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 0.94 · Confidence 0.68
Sources: Model Inputs (League/Teams, TheSportsDB)
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Expect a balanced opener. Leeds’ high-energy 4-3-3 with Ampadu anchoring should generate steady transition looks, but Everton’s revamped left side (Grealish + Mykolenko overlap) can tilt chance quality even without Branthwaite. Set-pieces roughly even; goalkeeper edge to Pickford mitigates by home volume.
- Result: Lean draw or narrow Leeds (home + crowd effect; conservative win-draw stance).
- Score: 1–1 (±1 goal range)
- O/U: On a 2.5 line — Over 47% / Under 53% (slight lean Under).
Sources: Final Verdict Basis (fixture/context)
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model uses historical/public data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please bet responsibly.