Win Rate
Real Madrid 78.3%
Draw
14.6%
Osasuna
7.1%
Most common scoreline 2–0 · O2.5 61.8% / U2.5 38.2%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: LaLiga 2025/26, Matchday 1
- Date & Time: Tue, 19 Aug 2025 · 21:00 (CEST) · UTC+2
- Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
- Broadcast: Spain — DAZN LaLiga; USA — ESPN+ (streaming)
- Referee/VAR: TBD (RFEF publishes assignments ~24h pre-KO) / TBD
- Weather (Kick-off): ~29°C, partly cloudy, light WNW breeze; daytime heat alert until ~21:00 local
Sources: Official Fixtures · Broadcast Info (Spain, DAZN) · Match Card (UTC Time) · Weather (AEMET)
2) Lineups & Setu
Real Madrid (4-3-3)
Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Militão, Huijsen, Álvaro Carreras; Valverde, Tchouaméni, Arda Güler; Brahim Díaz, Mbappé, Vinícius Jr.
Notes: Bellingham out (shoulder); Rüdiger suspended; Valverde expected to be ready after minor fatigue, Camavinga late test.
Osasuna (3-5-2)
Aitor Fernández; Areso, Catena, Herrando; Moncayola, Torró, Moi Gómez, Rubén García, Bretones; Raúl García, Budimir.
Notes: Budimir leads the line; wing-backs provide width; monitor late knocks to wide players from preseason.
Sources: Predicted Lineups (SM) · XI Projection (Yahoo)
3) Medical & Condition
- Real Madrid: Bellingham (shoulder, out until ~Oct); Mendy (thigh, out); Rüdiger (suspension); Camavinga (ankle, late test); Endrick (hamstring, doubtful).
- Osasuna: Core XI fit; preseason minor issues to wide players monitored; Budimir fit after spring rib issue.
Sources: Real Madrid Medical · Osasuna Wide Player Update · Budimir Status
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Real Madrid: New managerial era under Xabi Alonso; squad headlines include Mbappé leading the front line. Depth pieces and academy grads competing for early-season minutes.
- Osasuna: Alessio Lisci era begins, Budimir remains focal after a 21-goal league season; selective defensive reinforcement under discussion.
Sources: Madrid season opener context · Budimir profile · Fixture context
5) Public Opinion & Context
- H2H tilt to Real Madrid at the Bernabéu; recent meetings include heavy Madrid wins, with Osasuna occasionally forcing low-tempo draws.
Sources: H2H/Recent Records · Odds/Market Trends
6) Stats & Simulation Result
Poisson + Dixon–Coles (correlation adjustment), Elo, last 10 matches, opponent strength, lineup availability, weather/referee adjustments. 100k sims & Platt/Isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Real Madrid 2.06 · Osasuna 0.73
- Win/Draw/Loss: 78.3% / 14.6% / 7.1% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 2–0 (Alternatives: 2–1, 3–0)
- O/U 2.5: Over 61.8% · Under 38.2%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ Valverde OUT → λRM −0.10 → Home win −1.4pp; O2.5 −2.1pp
- Δ KO temp ≥31°C → total λ −0.08 → O2.5 −1.5pp; Draw +0.6pp
- Δ Budimir not starting → λOSA −0.15 → Away win −0.9pp; U2.5 +0.7pp
Quality Metrics — Coverage 0.88 · Confidence 0.76
Sources: Baseline Teams/Time · Weather Adjustment
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Real Madrid vs Osasuna — Madrid’s front three (Vinícius–Mbappé–Brahim/Rodrygo) should generate consistent break-throughs against Osasuna’s compact 3-5-2. Set-piece threat plus superior CB/CM depth tilt the balance, while evening heat may slightly cap tempo.
- Result: Real Madrid favored (win) — conservative “win or draw” also strong
- Score: 2–0 (±1 goal range)
- O/U: At 2.5 — Over 61.8% / Under 38.2%
Sources: Final Verdict Basis
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.