Win Rate
Celta Vigo 60.2%
Draw
25.6%
Getafe
14.2%
Most common scoreline 1-0 to Celta · O2.5 45.1% / U2.5 54.9%
1) Match Overview
- Competition/Round: LaLiga 2025/26, Matchday 1
- Date & Time: Sun 17 Aug 2025 · 17:00 CEST (15:00 UTC)
- Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
- Broadcast (ES): Movistar LaLiga TV2 (Movistar 57), Orange (112), LaLiga TV Bar
- Referee/VAR: Iosu Galech Apezteguía / Mario Melero López (AVAR: Jorge Figueroa Vázquez)
- Weather (Kick-off): Clear→partly cloudy, ~27–28 °C, light wind (Vigo)
Sources: Official Fixtures (TheSportsDB) · Broadcast Info (AS) · Referee Appointments (RFEF PDF) · Weather (AccuWeather)
2) Lineups & Setup
Celta Vigo (3-4-3, projected)
Ionuț Radu; Manu Fernández, Yoel Lago, Marcos Alonso; Javi Rueda, Fran Beltrán, Ilaix Moriba, Ó. Mingueza; Iago Aspas, Ferran Jutglà, Pablo Durán.
Starfelt out → Yoel Lago steps in (right/central CB). Zaragoza likely bench to start; Aspas + Jutglà share 9/false-9 lanes.
Getafe (4-4-2/4-1-4-1, projected)
David Soria; Ismael, Djené, Diego Rico, Juan Iglesias; M. Arambarri, Luis Milla, Y. Coba, Mario Martín; Ó. Liso, Uche.
Duarte & Álex Sancris suspended; Abqar, Kiko Femenía, Juanmi injured → depth stress on back line and wings. Late registrations could alter bench composition.
Sources: Celta projected XI (AS) · Getafe projected XI (AS)
3) Medical & Condition
- Celta Vigo: Out — Carl Starfelt (hamstring). Squad otherwise available; several academy call-ups in rotation.
- Getafe: Suspended — Domingos Duarte, Álex Sancris. Injured — Abdel Abqar, Kiko Femenía, Juanmi.
Sources: Celta squad note · Getafe injuries/suspensions
4) Transfer Market & Contract Motivation
- Celta Vigo: Key summer ins include GK Ionuț Radu (free), FW Ferran Jutglà (Brugge), and Bryan Zaragoza (loan from Bayern). Local hero Borja Iglesias signed through 2028 — crowd boost, rotation at 9.
- Getafe: Budget constraints; depth thin early. Recent adds (e.g., Peter Federico) need time; several players not available MD1 due to suspension/injury.
Sources: Celta transfers (Radu) · Bryan Zaragoza loan (FC Bayern) · Borja Iglesias contract · Getafe official news
5) Public Opinion & Context
- Celta’s academy-first project under Claudio Giráldez remains a storyline; Getafe arrive short on registered senior depth for MD1.
- Recent H2H tilt to Celta (2 straight wins across 2024/25). Market prices make Celta clear favorite at home.
Sources: H2H/Recent · Odds snapshot
6) Stats & Simulation Results
Poisson + Dixon–Coles (correlation adjustment), Elo, last-10 form, opponent strength, lineup availability, weather/referee adjustments. 100k sims with Platt/Isotonic calibration.
- Expected Goals λ: Celta 1.55 · Getafe 0.93 (blend of 24/25 xG/xGA and MD1 availability; league-avg & home-advantage calibrated).
- Win/Draw/Loss: 60.2% / 25.6% / 14.2% (Sum 100.0%)
- Most Common Scoreline: 1-0 (Alternatives: 1-1, 2-0)
- O/U 2.5: Over 45.1% · Under 54.9%
Top 3 Sensitivities
- Δ Getafe registrations (if two suspended defenders were available): Celta win −3.4pp, Under +2.0pp.
- Δ Borja Iglesias starts (≥60’): Celta λ +0.08 → win +1.6pp.
- Δ Referee penalty tendency (+0.15 pens/match vs avg): Over +2.1pp, draw −0.8pp.
Quality Metrics — Coverage 0.93 · Confidence 0.74
Sources: Celta 24/25 metrics · Getafe 24/25 metrics · Market calibration
7) Final Verdict
Summary: Celta’s right-edge (Rueda–Mingueza) vs Getafe’s makeshift flank and thin CB rotation is the key. With Starfelt out, Celta still project as the better shot-quality side; Getafe’s route is set-pieces and second phases.
- Result: Celta favored (win-lean; draw guard if conservative)
- Score: 1-0 (±1 goal range)
- O/U: Lean Under 2.5 by model share (54.9%)
Sources: Match context · Broadcast/preview
※ This article is for informational purposes only. It is not investment or gambling advice. The model is based on public and historical data and does not guarantee outcomes. Please use responsibly.